Expert Lotto 5.6 released

Re: Expert Lotto 5.6 released

Postby CARBOB » Sat Jan 25, 2014 6:52 pm

Has anyone did any backtesting with the WhatIF. How accurate are the values?
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Re: Expert Lotto 5.6 released

Postby motiram » Sat Jan 25, 2014 9:55 pm

Hello CARBOB,
CARBOB wrote:Has anyone did any backtesting with the WhatIF. How accurate are the values?

I do not know how can back testing be checked with the WhatIF, I am also interested to know about, how accurate values? Can be obtaining with WhatIF. But I am sure Winning Number History is a Powerful Tool.

If you know about how to do back testing with WhatIF, might I can try to check the values for you.

Regards,
Moti
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Re: Expert Lotto 5.6 released

Postby CARBOB » Sat Jan 25, 2014 10:55 pm

I have no idea, I think you would have to be able to download the values, then run them against the actual summary.
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Re: Expert Lotto 5.6 released

Postby motiram » Sun Jan 26, 2014 12:17 am

Hello CARBOB,
CARBOB wrote:I have no idea, I think you would have to be able to download the values, then run them against the actual summary.

Quick look I have downloaded winning numbers proprieties 6/49 (Demo Lottery) in excel and back tested only with history level 0. Please see the file attached below.

But I think it not possible to do these test with excel every time with all levels when data are changing constantly.

This is what should be added automatic process in Expert lotto.

What is your opinion?

Regards,
Moti
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Re: Expert Lotto 5.6 released

Postby andthen » Sun Jan 26, 2014 1:30 am

Hi Carbob and Moti

Back testing with estimates/predictions is not really possible, as they are dynamic and change from draw to to draw, using the previous draws to set their levels. So you can't run a set of estimates for this week's draw and expect it have to any meaning/relevance in the past.

History differences are determined each week for each level by the previous draw which pushes numbers through the levels. Each number has a difference, based on it's draw history. Each level is a draw. Therefore every new draw each level will change.

Whether a history level difference is negative or positive and the size of it (eg low -1 or high - over -30) is determined by the numbers drawn in L0. There are many tools you can use to estimate likely differences in each levels, one is the sum of differences of the segments for a level (for eg a level with total sum of differences of over 300 in my lottery is generally a 60% chance of being a negative). You can also look at the numbers per segment...if a level has mainly numbers in segment 1, and none in Segment 3 it is likely to be a positive level.

The only way to test a theory using what if simulation or any other method of predicting history differences is to hide a draw, enter your predictions and then unhide the draw and see how close you came.

The other factor that will have a bearing on your simulation results is the settings you have in your occurrence threshold, found in tools. i think the default setting is 7.5%-7.5% which i have found is too high for my lottery. the higher the OC, the narrower the simulation results will be.

A
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Re: Expert Lotto 5.6 released

Postby stan » Mon Jan 27, 2014 9:35 pm

winsumloosesum wrote:I would be interested also. Can you do a video using this feature Stan?


http://www.expertlotto.com/files/video/ ... istory.wmv
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Re: Expert Lotto 5.6 released

Postby winsumloosesum » Tue Jan 28, 2014 12:18 am

Thanks Stan!!!
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