Just an idea about, Hot, Medium and Cold numbers

[motiram]

Hello Stan,

Here is just an idea about how, Hot, Medium And Cold Numbers (H-M-C) can be obtain. I have given a brief description in attached word.doc which, will explain details of H-M-C numbers of the excel file.

Please, I need all EL users opinions, do you like the idea. Or please suggest any other improved idea could be better to find (H-M-C) numbers?

Thanks And Regards,
Moti

[motiram]

Hello to All,

Here is the Brief description of the above post

Idea is to scan Latest 12 draws, and find Hot Medium And Cold numbers (H-M-C)
1st group latest 1st to 4th draw
2nd group latest 5th to 12th draw

6-49 (Demo Lottery)
Draw Nº--------Date----------n1--------n2--------n3--------n4--------n5--------n6
---1-----2010/28 Sun 2nd----23--------29--------36--------42--------44--------47
---2-----2010/28 Sun 1st-----6---------13--------14--------19--------41--------42
---3-----2010/28 Wed 2nd---2---------13--------16--------17---------25-------40
---4-----2010/28 Wed 1st---16--------18-------- 22--------23---------28-------29

---5-----2010/27 Sun 2nd----1--------- -6---------12--------24--------32--------41
---6-----2010/27 Sun 1st-----2---------15---------22--------29-------30--------37
---7-----2010/27 Wed 2nd---20--------23---------25--------30-------33--------35
---8-----2010/27 Wed 1st----8---------11---------19--------26-------48--------49
---9-----2010/26 Sun 2nd----8---------11--------18--------32--------36--------38
--10----2010/26 Sun 1st----- 5----------6---------11--------31--------40--------43
--11----2010/26 Wed 2nd----4---------18--------26--------33--------35--------47
--12----2010/26 Wed 1st---- 5----------12--------25--------31--------44--------46

Hot numbers = which will be find in the 1st and 2nd groups
For example number 2 is find in the 1st and 2nd groups so far this will be describe as Hot Number

Medium numbers = which will be find only in the 2nd groups
For example number 1 is find only in the 2nd groups so far this will be describe as Medium Number

Cold numbers = which will be not find in the any of the 2 groups
For example number 3 is not find in any of the 2nd groups so far this will be describe as Cold NumberTracking

Resume:
Hot numbers = Though finds in the 1st and 2nd groups
Medium numbers = Though finds only in the 2nd groups
Cold numbers = Though are not find in any of the 2nd groups

Using this method here are the (H-M-C) number list
H----------M---------C
2----------1---------3
6----------4---------7
13---------5---------9
14---------8--------10
16--------11--------21
17--------12--------27
18--------15--------34
19--------20--------39
22--------24--------45
23--------26
25--------30
28--------31
29--------32
36--------33
40--------35
41--------37
42--------38
44--------43
47--------46
---------- 48
---------- 49

Regards,
Moti

[stan]

Nobody cares how Expert Lotto calculates the hot/cold numbers?

[Jerzy]

I care, Stan.

However, I don't know how it happens.

I suppose there are general principles which are applicable to any lottery. But lotteries differ from each other and these differences should be reflected somehow when we calculate hot and cold numbers. For example, there are games like 5/45 and 7/45. I believe that we should be very careful categorizing numbers as hot or cold, but decisions must be made.

People can have different understanding of hot/cold numbers. But what really matters is the way EL calculates these numbers. What is your understanding of hot/cold numbers and how EL calculates hot/cold numbers?

[stan]

What is your understanding of hot/cold numbers and how EL calculates hot/cold numbers?

See menu Tools - Options - Number Coloring - Hot/Cold

[andthen]

Hi Moti

I have worked through your excel, inputting the last 12 draws from the lottery i play (7/45). I get to the 9th Step and then I am lost! I don't know how you have calculated the possible combinations and odds etc and obviously they would be very different for a 7 draw lottery which has odds of over 45m. If you could explain how you perform those calculations that would be a great help.

Am I correct in assuming that once you have established your HMC number groups, you would then select the patterns with the highest odds of occurrence or based on trending and then filter accordingly using number groups?

I think your excel is good and might benefit from another column where you track the recent patterns...in a 7/45 lottery it seems to trend a bit hot for a while then alot of cold numbers build up and it "re-sets" the balance by having a draw with a lot of cold numbers (obviously because there are more of them). Knowing when to hit the cold biased patterns would be useful for sure.

Regards AH

[motiram]

Hello andthen,
Here is a brief explanation how to calculated the Odds: for lottery 6/49 and same method will be applied to all.

For example 6-49 has 13.983.816 odds this is (direct method)
Formula will be =COMBIN(49,6) Result 13.983816 Combinations

Ok now we break or divide 49 numbers in three section Hot – Medium - Cold
Hot = 19, Medium = 21, Cold = 9 Total will be 49

Ok now we break or divide 6 number in three Pattern = 2-3-1 = Total 6 Numbers

Now what happened we are playing in three groups
Group1- 2 numbers Out of 19 Hot
Group2- 3 numbers Out of 21 Medium
Group1- 1 numbers Out of 9 Cold

Now things change
Group1- For example 2-19 will be 171 odds
Formula will be =COMBIN(19,3) Result 171 combinations

Group2- For example 3-21 will be 1330 odds
Formula will be =COMBIN(21,2) Result 1330 combinations

Group3- For example 1-9 will be 9 odds
Formula will be =COMBIN(1,9) Result 9 combinations

So total Odd will be = 171*1330*9=2.046.870,
For these 3 groups which is formed with H-M-C (19-21-9) and Pattern 2-3-1

And combined Formula will be =COMBIN(19,2)*COMBIN(21,3)*COMBIN(9,1)

Any way I have attached file for more detail fill formulas as described you will the result are shown setp-9
And Just change in cells B1,C1,D1 (H-M-C) numbers which total must be 49 you will get the odds for selected H-M-C

Regards,
Moti

[motiram]

Hello andthen,

Here is a file attached for Odds 7/45
Just change in cells B1,C1,D1 (H-M-C) numbers which total must be 45 you will get the odds for selected H-M-C

Regards,
Moti

[andthen]

Thank you Moti for doing this, i will take a look ..

[andthen]

HI Moti

THank you again for sorting out the odds calculations for me. It all works and it is very neat and a very nice piece of analysis.

I am probably missing something here, but I am not able to see how you can use this analysis. Yes you have the odds of what is likely, but as all regular lotto players know, random numbers don't pay much attention to the odds..so my question is how have you thought to use this analysis?

If you select the patterns with the shortest odds (ie.e where most combinations will fall) and turn them into number groups and filter, then you won't reduce a package by very much (and a lot of time spent making the number groups!) ...so i reckon you need to somehow be more targeted and track the trends and then pick the pattern you think most likely to occur. Something like this cannot be back tested because it is dynamic and changes from week to week (unless Stan sets up an adjustable "medium" in his hot/cold settings.

I have never had much luck with hot and cold numbers, there are some very general rules that mostly work, but when you look at them closely, it is clear that for example the old rule of 90% of winning numbers have appeared in the last 10 draws on paper sounds good, but then when you look at it, you will find that 90% of the available numbers (eg 40 out of 45) happen to have been drawn in the last ten draws too!

Having done the sums for this week's upcoming draw my spread of HMC numbers is 23-17-5. So if i get time i will eliminate all patterns that have more than 4 from the C section, then begin a new complex filter and make up the remaining patterns into separate number groups, following the other patterns you have identified. And finally select one must pass from all those groups. I have an idea that it will not remove many tickets and that it will take me some hours to do...but if i get time, it's worth a try. Aside from that, i will record the winning pattern each week and see if a trend pattern emerges.

Unless you have a better idea?! Of course, Stan could make up a filter that automated everything i have suggested here too..just kidding..

Thanks again and regards AH

[motiram]

Hello andthen,

Really tell you truth; I had this in my archive I have never analysed to use.

Here is one more idea to find new strategy, after the analysis, which can promise whether it will improve odds of winning, or not.It is not possible to get data analysis widely in the excel twisting as one wish. Has to change all formulas et cetera.

We need Stan, to Fine-Tune this idea, giving us wide options to analysis.

For example: Now I have 2-group, 1 with 4 draws and other with 8 draws,
So far 1st groups can be customized with 2 draws 3, 4 or 5 draws and so on… and 2nd group with same idea. This also will helpful to define H-M-C with others lotteries.Other thought could be applied I do not have much idea, need help all of you.

For example: if you buy 2 tickets instead of 1. Assume if the odds were 1 in 14 million, but buying 2 tickets lower the odds to 1 in 7 million. You have taken the first step toward to winning.

In general when we are breaking down in to sets, mean we are losing our possibilities of winning or losing with each of the sets is formed. Or in other world we can say we will be having possibility of winning or losing according to there percentage.

Regards,
Moti

[andthen]

Hi Moti
I worked with your idea and excels for this week's draw. I did the calculations and then created a complex filter and created all the possible combinations in individual number groups. Then i removed the combinations i thought highly unlikely to happen, leaving me with 20 or so combinations, then select min1/max1 to pass and the filter removes around 35% of combinations. And furthermore it worked!

It is a bit of time to set up each week but i think it can be useful. If you were aggressive and picked six or so of the most likely patterns, the number reduction would be even greater.

I was thinking also that there are so many different ways and methods of calculating hot warm (medium) and cold numbers that you could run a few different methods, make number groups for all of them in separate complex filters and probably reduce the package even further. i just haven't had the time to experiment.

Then i thought some more and realised that HMC is really another form of segmentation..just segmentation where numbers qualify slightly differently. In the current segments, in Level 0 numbers fall into a segment depending on their winning number history..i.e. the single last time they were drawn. This then flows down through all the levels. In HMC segmentation, in Level 0, segment 1 would be numbers that have appeared let's say >2 times in the last 12 draws and a min of 1 in the last 4 draws...and so on. Segment Three would essentially be the same as the current one. You could then alter the requirements i.e. to qualify for segment 1 you could alter the draw history and the rules of qualification...eg last 8 draws, more than once. etc etc

I then thought how great it would if Stan would consider developing this as a parallel segmentation universe so to speak. (Maybe similar to vertical segment and hot/cold vertical segment - you have segments and hot/medium/cold segments. Then you could really do stuff with it, and quite quickly too, compared to manually calculating everything and making hundreds of number groups.

What do you think Moti/Stan...anyone else?

[stan]

Then i thought some more and realised that HMC is really another form of segmentation..just segmentation where numbers qualify slightly differently.

But this applies to Level 0 only. Don't know how I would calculate such hot/cold segmentation for other levels...

[andthen]

Well .. would it not be possible to do it so that Level One is calculated, that set's the Number Difference for each number, each draw.

So if for eg in Draw #100, the HWC settings are Hot 2 in 12, Warm 1 in 12 and Cold 0 in 12 So you have three hot/warm/cold segments -1,2,3, Draw result is 5, 12, 19, 20, 29,32. 5,19 20 are 2 in 12/Hot/Segment 1, 12 is Warm Segment 2 and 29+32 are Cold Segment 3. Then - as with now - each draw they have +1 added to their number difference as they move to the next level.

I am probably hopelessly ignorant but i thought all the levels were ultimately determined by Level 0 and therefore this would be no different to that. All this is is a different method of populating the segments in the first level.

A

[stan]

Well .. would it not be possible to do it so that Level One is calculated, that set's the Number Difference for each number, each draw.

So if for eg in Draw #100, the HWC settings are Hot 2 in 12, Warm 1 in 12 and Cold 0 in 12 So you have three hot/warm/cold segments -1,2,3, Draw result is 5, 12, 19, 20, 29,32. 5,19 20 are 2 in 12/Hot/Segment 1, 12 is Warm Segment 2 and 29+32 are Cold Segment 3. Then - as with now - each draw they have +1 added to their number difference as they move to the next level.

I am probably hopelessly ignorant but i thought all the levels were ultimately determined by Level 0 and therefore this would be no different to that. All this is is a different method of populating the segments in the first level.

A

I could apply the segmentation settings generated in Level 0 (the latest draw) to other levels as well. But does it make any sense? In level 10 you'd be categorizing 10th previous occurrence of each number according to hot/cold settings that apply to the latest draw...