My Estimates and Whatif Analysis Confusion.

My Estimates and Whatif Analysis Confusion.

Postby koosjr » Wed Apr 08, 2015 5:22 am

I am a brand new user of Expert Lotto and for starters, it is EXACTLY the kind of tool I was looking for. This is the kind of functions a power user can appreciate.

While the software seemed quite daunting at first, it is actually not that difficult to find your way around it and overall, I would say it is well rounded for a person who is interested in some hard core analysis. As a Mechanical Engineer, it appeals to me.

I use the Linux version. Work perfect. Did not had one single hang with serious simulations and the cancel buttons work every time.


Right. At the moment, I am battling a bit with the "My Estimates" and the "Whatif" analysis specifically since it seems not to really work when one adjusts the "cut-off draw date".

If I use the cut-off date will the latest figures and only the last date cut off, Whatif will select level values, reject tickets and when I test it, it hits the jackpot - that is of course with no limits on the number of tickets generated so the number produced are quite bit higher than what I can buy.

Even if I use the Whatif with the last value included, it works well,, however no jackpot values is generated because the next draw still needs to some.

If I then adjust the cut-off date say six months back, the level figures does change if one runs the whatif again, but it then rejects all tickets and does not produce a single number.


If I tune the My Estimates manually, something similar happens. With only the very last draw cur off to use as a test value later, one can adjust the predicted level values to within exactly the range that the last actual draw have been, and a very good set of tickets are generated. Set the cut-off date back a few months and the analysis produce nothing useful again with level values adjusted to exactly the range of the next draw from the cut-off date.

Also, with manual tuning the greyscaled histogram bar seems to represent only recent values, regardless of how far back the cut-off date is set.


So in both cases, the analysis seems to work only for the very most recent values. It should however work for all the older ones.


Is there something I am missing?
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Re: My Estimates and Whatif Analysis Confusion.

Postby stan » Sun Apr 12, 2015 3:53 pm

Not sure I follow what the issue is here...

In general What-if provides a way to test what would happen if the given numbers come up after the current latest draw. So without cut-off draw date you are basically testing numbers for the coming draw.
If you hide the latest draw you can use what-if to back-test the latest draw - if you input the exact numbers of the hidden latest draw you'll get the Jackpot stats values everywhere. Or you can enter numbers that are similar and watch how the stats values will change...
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Re: My Estimates and Whatif Analysis Confusion.

Postby koosjr » Tue Apr 14, 2015 4:24 am

Thanks Stan,

I am comfortable with "My Estimates" by now. Still need to work a bit on the "Whatif" but think I will handle it smoothly soon. :D
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