ameriken wrote:Stan, when doing the pattern matching and the predictions are posted, the pink and blue arrows appear to indicate whether a value has increased or decreased. I've noticed that most of these are correct, however I've seen some levels where the arrows sometimes do not accurately represent the true movement. For example, I am looking at the prior draw sum being 814, and the predicted sum is 805, however in this level a blue upward arrow is in the box. This happens in one or two levels everytime I use the function. It doesn't affect anything else, however I figured you'd want to have it corrected.
email me a screenshot next time you get such results pls.
you can also check the application log (menu 'view - application log') to see more details about the prediction process. email me that log as well pls.
Also, I've been doing some backtesting with the pattern matching, using a sampling of 2000 draws, with the default pattern size 2 to 50 and latest draws for backtest 50. When I get the predicted values and enter them into 'my estimates' and filter a full package, the filtered results are 0. This has happened a few times, so I wonder if I am not setting something properly? Suggestions?
that's expected. the predictor just looks at a series of numbers, it has no way of knowing what those numbers represent or how they relate to other series of numbers (i.e. levels). so you'll be getting conficting predicitons more often than not.
the pattern matching predictor is no silver bullet:) it just tells you what happened in the past when there had been a similar pattern...