Working on Ball Street trading Numbers!!

Working on Ball Street trading Numbers!!

Postby TheNotch » Tue Dec 12, 2006 7:40 am

I have been playing around with ExpertLotto pro since November and have found it very useful. But it was lacking a certain feel I had been use to in my past life, trading S&P futures and bruising Wall Street.

I then started applying some of my trading 'indicators' and methods to the 'lotto market' and together with ExpertLotto have developed what seems to be a winning approach.

In short, I have a short and fast 'moving average' and 'trading range' for each ball. Predicted ball direction is derived from the moving averages and the last balls' position with respect to the moving averages.

A 'trading range' for each ball is determined by the last ball, predicted direction, and trading band. For example, if last draw ball 1 was 3 and the predicted direction was UP and the upper trading range for ball 1 was 14, then ball 1 would range from 3 to 14.

Ticket package is generated using Position Filters - Number Range and the ranges for each ball. Additional filtering of odd/even, hi/lo, or sum should be applied to reduce ticket package size, but may also cause loss of some prizes.

Now the catch, the system generates anywhere from 200,000 to 1,000,000 tickets. Which in itself poses the only drawback to this system, who wants to fund it??

I chose the Ontario49, cuz I live there, and they're only $0.50 a play, so the actual average amount wagered per draw was under $250,000.
The jackpot pays $1m, with $50k, $500,$50,$5 prizes.

I started using my trading approach a few of weeks ago, mid Nov, and hit a homer on Nov 22....went nah couldn't be! Back testing takes a lot of manual work but I got back to Sep 30 done and hit 4 others.
December has been record, 2 out of 3 so far!!!

Bottom line after ticket costs....from Sep 30/06 to present the system is up $5.3m!!!

Am I nuts, or is it normal to have 7 direct hits in under 3 months?
Do I need to find some crazy man with lotsa money, or the gonads to mortgage my house?
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Postby stan » Tue Dec 12, 2006 11:21 am

your strategy is very similar to our own strategy "part II" described in the private jackpot section (you have access now). we recommend applying 'expert lotto strategy part I' once you get your 100k to 1m tickets.
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winning!!

Postby TheNotch » Wed Dec 13, 2006 6:28 am

Thanks for the access to the jackpot section.

I went thru it and there seems to be a lot of people doing all kinds of things, with maybe too much filtering trying to get the ticket package size down.

What is the thinking on package size? Getting the most number of numbers covered in a small wheel?
Cost? Cost per ticket...$2 vs $0.50?How many are too many?

My goal is creating a system that will generate about 400,000 tickets ($200,000), and win 30% of the time. So my main concern was ticket price, I chose a $0.50/ticket lotto (Ontario49) so I get 4 times more tickets than the $2 lottos (lotto6/49).

I have it down to an average of about 450,000 now after 21 draws, most are in the 200,000 to 400,000 range, while a couple went over 1,000,000 slightly...but won!

I have tried filtering down the ticket package so many different ways, but can never replicate the 7 out of 21 win record, or anything close. I'll try a few of the ideas I found in the forum with my system to see if I can reduce the ticket package size and retain some of the homers!!

Funny to note that I used the exact same approach on the $2 lotto and never hit it once!!
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AGAIN!!

Postby TheNotch » Thu Dec 14, 2006 7:34 pm

Did it again last night. Ticket package of 392,050, hit homer with all prizes for a net of over $1m. Thats 3 out of 4 this month so far.
Going to the bank to get a mortgage!!!
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Postby TheNotch » Thu Dec 14, 2006 8:16 pm

I have developed a system for the Ontario49 lottery.
Its $0.50 per ticket and pays $1m for all six, $50,000 for 5 + bonus ball,
$500 for 5/6, $50 for 4/6 and $5 for 3/6.

I have set up a hi/lo range for each of 6 balls, I then determine from the last drawn number and 2 moving averages if each ball will go up or down.
If it looks like it will go up then the range is the last ball number up to the hi for that ball, or opposite for down.
If it looks like it could go either way, I use the hi/lo for that ball range.

For example, last night Ontario49 draw, I had the following ranges determined :
b1 : 2-15............previous ball was 5..........predicted direction Sideways
b2 : 6-26............previous ball was 21........predicted direction Down
b3 : 11-31..........previous ball was 32........predicted direction Down
b4 : 19-37..........previous ball was 34........predicted direction Down
b5 : 24-43..........previous ball was 37........predicted direction Down
b6 : 34-49..........previous ball was 47........predicted direction Down

So...final ball ranges were :
b1 : 2-15............winning ball was 3.........HIT
b2 : 14-21..........winning ball was 19.........HIT
b3 : 21-32..........winning ball was 28.........HIT
b4 : 28-34..........winning ball was 30.........HIT
b5 : 33-37..........winning ball was 33.........HIT
b6 : 34-47..........winning ball was 47.........HIT

Ticket package was 392,050, cost of $196,025.....net winnings of $1,024,455.
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Postby Joe » Thu Dec 14, 2006 8:22 pm

[quote=TheNotch]
I have developed a system for the Ontario49 lottery.
Its $0.50 per ticket and pays $1m for all six, $50,000 for 5 + bonus ball,
$500 for 5/6, $50 for 4/6 and $5 for 3/6.

I have set up a hi/lo range for each of 6 balls, I then determine from the last drawn number and 2 moving averages if each ball will go up or down.
If it looks like it will go up then the range is the last ball number up to the hi for that ball, or opposite for down.
If it looks like it could go either way, I use the hi/lo for that ball range.

For example, last night Ontario49 draw, I had the following ranges determined :
b1 : 2-15............previous ball was 5..........predicted direction Sideways
b2 : 6-26............previous ball was 21........predicted direction Down
b3 : 11-31..........previous ball was 32........predicted direction Down
b4 : 19-37..........previous ball was 34........predicted direction Down
b5 : 24-43..........previous ball was 37........predicted direction Down
b6 : 34-49..........previous ball was 47........predicted direction Down

So...final ball ranges were :
b1 : 2-15............winning ball was 3.........HIT
b2 : 14-21..........winning ball was 19.........HIT
b3 : 21-32..........winning ball was 28.........HIT
b4 : 28-34..........winning ball was 30.........HIT
b5 : 33-37..........winning ball was 33.........HIT
b6 : 34-47..........winning ball was 47.........HIT

Ticket package was 392,050, cost of $196,025.....net winnings of $1,024,455.
[/quote]

Great Work, Let me check this with my lotto and i get back to u
hope u r not so far to catch ur jackpot, stan doing good job with filter stats page. try that it will really work for u
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Postby Jerzy » Fri Dec 15, 2006 4:32 pm

Hi TheNotch,

You've really intrigued me! Could you tell me more?

What kind of 2 moving averages do you use? And how is it possible to determine the direction of ball movement using the last drawn number and 2 moving averages?

What do you think about the WNH sums/differences charts available in Expert Lotto? Can you see any patterns similar to those occurring in stock market analysis charts?

Regards

Jerzy
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Postby Midas » Fri Dec 15, 2006 8:19 pm

Hi Notch,

Are your moving averages stationary?

Regards
Midas
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Postby stan » Fri Dec 15, 2006 10:24 pm

[quote=TheNotch:1166120215]
Ticket package was 392,050, cost of $196,025.....net winnings of $1,024,455.
[/quote]

i'd say it would take some time to actually bet those 392050 tickets ;-)
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printing tickets

Postby TheNotch » Mon Dec 18, 2006 5:30 am

Stan.....your software prints them out....put you're correct, I figure trying to bet a few hundred thousand tickets would take awhile in the store!!!
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Moving Averages

Postby TheNotch » Mon Dec 18, 2006 6:08 am

Hey Jerzy:
I am using excel to generate moving averages. I imported the winning numbers for 10 years, then calc a 1,6 and 12 month moving average.
Similar to a stock chart, the moving averages are numbers moving in a direction over a stock...in our case the balls winning numbers. I use the previous draw numbers as the 'open' and determine direction from the averages versus the 'open'.

I also generate a 'trading range' that the ball moves within, which again is like Bollinger Bands on a stock chart.

Most of the issues I have found in determining the ranges for each ball is trying to keep with the lo/hi number split correct. ExpertLotto stats can show you the 3:3, 2:4, 4:2, 5:1, 1:5, 0:6 and 6:0 percentages for the lo/hi of previous winning numbers. In order to have 2 lo and 4 hi, the ranges for the first 2 balls could only be 1-24, while the other 4 would be 25-49, reverse for 4:2, the first 4 balls would be 1-24, with the last 2 being 25-49.....3:3 is easy to deal with but the 1:5 and 5:1 ranges are what makes the ticket package big. You can filter out any 6:0 or 0:6 combos, as they only come up a total of 1.6% of the time!!

Tried to get my head around the WNH for a few weeks but gave up as I couldn't create a solution that would hit with any frequency with less then 2+ million tickets.
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Postby Jerzy » Mon Dec 18, 2006 1:11 pm

Thank you TheNotch.

I will experiment with moving averages, to see how this strategy works for Australian Saturday Lotto (6/45 game, 21 years history).
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Postby Midas » Mon Dec 18, 2006 1:36 pm

Hi TheBotch,

Still trying to get an understanding of your system. Would you be so kind to illustrate your ideas through graphs. The use of moving averages a (months) out sounds amazing!. Does such distant SMA/LMA really predict the present?.

Here are some useful definitions, which I think would be helpful to others reading your system.

Some Definitions

A simple moving average, in finance and especially in technical analysis, is one of a family of similar statistical techniques used to analyze time series data.A moving average series can be calculated for any time series, but is most often applied to stock prices, returns or trading volumes. Moving averages are used to smooth out short-term fluctuations, thus highlighting longer-term trends or cycles. The threshold between short-term and long-term depends on the application, and the parameters of the moving average will be set accordingly, in this case in terms of months out compared with present?.

Trading Range

The spread between the high and low prices (values) traded (set) during a period of time.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands are a technical trading tool created by John Bollinger in the early 1980s. They arose from the need for adaptive trading bands and the observation that volatility was dynamic, not static as was widely believed at the time.

The purpose of Bollinger Bands is to provide a relative definition of high and low. By definition prices are high at the upper band and low at the lower band. This definition can aid in rigorous pattern recognition and is useful in comparing price action to the action of indicators to arrive at systematic trading decisions.

Bollinger Bands consist of a set of three curves drawn in relation to securities prices. The middle band is a measure of the intermediate-term trend, usually a simple moving average, that serves as the base for the upper and lower bands. The interval between the upper and lower bands and the middle band is determined by volatility, typically the standard deviation of the same data that were used for the average. The default parameters, 20 periods and two standard deviations, may be adjusted to suit your purposes:

Middle Bollinger Band = 20-period simple moving average
Upper Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band + 2 * 20-period standard deviation
Lower Bollinger Band = Middle Bollinger Band - 2 * 20-period standard deviation

Two important tools are derived from the Bollinger Bands: BandWidth, a relative measure of the width of the bands, and %b, a measure of where the last price is in relation to the bands.

BandWidth = (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band) / Middle Bollinger Band
%b = (Last - Lower Bollinger Band) / (Upper Bollinger Band - Lower Bollinger Band)

BandWidth is most often used to quantify The Squeeze, a volatility-based trading opportunity. %b is used to clarify trading patterns and as an input for trading systems
.


I'm a little out of pocket to attempt trying out your system for real. I leave that to the ExpertLotto Team Millionares!.

Good Luck
Midas
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Postby Midas » Mon Dec 18, 2006 5:56 pm

See under Beta Versions forum (Page 2), Value Predictor discussion thread of (7/29/2006):

http://www.expertlotto.com/en/forum/for ... 290&page=2

You will note, the original use of SMA overlay on LMA with its knockout for stationary differenced series (present or not), The first differenced graph gives a good account for the direction of the short range trend forecast. Most of these ideas were incorporated into the value predictor program.

To date, I find these type of graphs applied for WNH (Trend Prediction) or any series invaluable, and complimentary to the output derived from value predictor. A surprising result is the upper/lower series limits are heuristically read of the graph and in most cases pinpointed accurately, especially since we intentionally induce stationarity as a precaution into the series we wish to predict. Unfortunately, we did not have time to enhance these trading graph ideas into EL for various lotto oscillators or bollinger bands etc...

I would be interested in your views. if you would enhance/modify (if you haven't already), such ideas in your system?.

Good Luck
Midas
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Ball 1 Graph

Postby TheNotch » Mon Dec 18, 2006 6:17 pm

Thanks for the link and insight into the WNH and value predictor. I have attached a graph for Ball#1 back from start of my tracking system, hope it shows up here in a legible format.
How do you put the image in the text here? Anyone know??
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
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