Some thoughts about strategy

Some thoughts about strategy

Postby player111 » Fri Mar 11, 2016 5:52 pm

Hi everyone. I have some sad thoughts about "strategy" as a concept.
To my mind, the main problem is the uniform distribution of all "patterns" and "properties" of the tickets.
You can choose any statistical characteristics or any patterns for your strategy, and finally it will left you with bunch of tickets. But your chance of winning will be proportional to the number of tickets, which have such statistical characteristics or which match your patterns.
In other words, probability depends on the size of your package. If you have 3% on "backtest" - you have ~3% of tickets in the package. If you got 50% on "backtest", then your package contains ~50% of all tickets.

I can't find a way to deal with this proportional dependency. Is it just math, and we can do nothing with it? Did anyone find a way to avoid this "proportions" and to get backtest results higher, than package size?
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Re: Some thoughts about strategy

Postby miner » Mon Aug 13, 2018 10:59 pm

Hello player111,
Are still following the forum?

The Lottery I am trying to "win" is a 5/45 plus 1/20 power-ball game. I am calculating just for 5/45 which is about 1,250.000 tickets. Playing 2 or more power-balls is not feasible as tickets climb to huge numbers.
So, I just want to say that so far I have come to a point where when I make a back test of a complex filter - I call it MASTER COMPLEX FILTER and contains a long list of individual filters - it passes 27 past draws by 100%, and it reduces a full wheel package by about 80% (depending on the individual filters setting). I test the filter using the TEST TICKET FULL WHEEL PACKAGE - about 200,000 - to 250,000 tickets in every draw. The jackpot is there; however the big jackpot winner is 5 plus I power-ball. Winning the jackpot without the power-ball will pay you from 5,000 to 300,000 Euro (depending on how many won it). Therefore it does not pay enough to cover the tickets cost. I am still working on building this MASTER COMPLEX FILTER hoping I can reduce the amount of tickets down to something I can afford to play one day.
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Re: Some thoughts about strategy

Postby Lottofool15 » Fri Nov 16, 2018 9:33 pm

Hi, I know this reply is late, but just in case you see this [and it's possibly helpful] I've noticed the issue your referring to with filters when i was putting them together. A way to potentially get more use out of any filter or groups is to analyze them with the custom analyzer option. If you backtest a good number of draws, you can get a good idea of what its max interval is, when the filters due, etc. This might help choose if you have several filters that say have a 30 percent chance of passing. I'm hoping to test how well doing this works soon, I'm going to try it likely with pick 3.
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Re: Some thoughts about strategy

Postby daniel » Sat Nov 17, 2018 6:20 am

Lottofool15 wrote:Hi, I know this reply is late, but just in case you see this [and it's possibly helpful] I've noticed the issue your referring to with filters when i was putting them together. A way to potentially get more use out of any filter or groups is to analyze them with the custom analyzer option. If you backtest a good number of draws, you can get a good idea of what its max interval is, when the filters due, etc. This might help choose if you have several filters that say have a 30 percent chance of passing. I'm hoping to test how well doing this works soon, I'm going to try it likely with pick 3.


Hi,
Just for your info.
For our pick 3 if you set number filters Palindronic to 2 to 3 pass and ulam 1 to 3 pass and sum range 4 to 25 you eliminate about 100 numbers and still pass all jackpot draws.
Daniel
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Re: Some thoughts about strategy

Postby Lottofool15 » Sat Nov 17, 2018 9:31 am

Hey, thanks for the info. Just to be clear, would the palindromic numbers for example be something like 797, or 424. Also, I looked up ulam numbers and im not sure i completely understand what thery are. For example, would you use the [1-2 sequence as in 1,2,3,4,6,8 or the 1-3 sequence 1,3,4,5,6,8 etc. Are these custom filters you just use from a match ticket file?
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Re: Some thoughts about strategy

Postby daniel » Sat Nov 17, 2018 9:42 am

Lottofool15 wrote:Hey, thanks for the info. Just to be clear, would the palindromic numbers for example be something like 797, or 424. Also, I looked up ulam numbers and im not sure i completely understand what thery are. For example, would you use the [1-2 sequence as in 1,2,3,4,6,8 or the 1-3 sequence 1,3,4,5,6,8 etc. Are these custom filters you just use from a match ticket file?


The filters are near the bottom of the filters list under TimMac Filters 1.
They include Prime Numbers,Lucas,Triangle, Square,Fibonacci, Powerful, Palindromic,Trimorphic,and Ulam.
Daniel
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Re: Some thoughts about strategy

Postby Lottofool15 » Sat Nov 17, 2018 8:17 pm

Hey thanks, i figured it out now. Will try using them. I didn't even know about the optional addons. Seems like im still learning something new with the software all the time.
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