Simulators

[Bobijohn]

Hi Stan

Two items for consideration please.

1) When you added the median to the WNH/Simulation table you made the statement that this value seemed more representative than the average. Based on my experimentation this seems to hold true. It would be most helpful to add a median difference column in the table to be able to quickly make a comparison between the median difference values and the average difference values – in both direction and magnitude.
2) Reference the WNH/History Difference tab screen. Here you provide an ingenious simulator for the segments. It would be most helpful to know the median and standard deviation for any simulation run. The standard deviation would be helpful in selecting a tolerance level for WNH sums filtering. The median would help in selecting the appropriate segment. The min/max and average values are already provided and are most helpful.

Thanks for your excellent work.

Bobijohn

[Bobijohn]

Hi Stan

Just moving this back up on the "radar screen" since I have had no response since posting.

Thanks for your attention.

Bobijohn

[stan]

yes, the median is on my list, you can expect it in the next build (hopefully:)

[Bobijohn]

Hi Stan

Thank you for implementing these changes. All seem to be working fine.

Bobijohn

[lottoboy]

Hi, Stan:

I have two questions about the Simulation:

1) Which one of Median and Avg should be started from to calculate the Diff in the Sim? For example, in 0 col, the Sim result is Increase, Median*=300; Diff=2; Avg=299, I'm not sure the Sim Sum (upper range ) should be 300+2=302 or 299+2=301?

2) Why there are some errors in the Diff of Simulation (full package load) table? Increase Diff = negtive value(-6) and Decrease Diff = positive value(6)? See the attach file.
Is it bug? or normal ? how can we calculate the sim sum according to those error values? Thanks.

Best,
lb

[Bobijohn]

lottoboy

Please read the Help files – they will answer most of what you ask. They clearly describe how the Increase/Decrease is derived plus have an excellent description of the meaning and derivation of each of the columns/values etc. Search for Simulation.

The Median value is a recent addition. It is what it is and therefore not adjustable. The difference value given is the difference between the median value and the sum value shown in column 2. That is all – it has nothing to do with the Increase/Decrease shown. If you are looking for a tolerance value then pay attention to the standard deviation. I prefer to use the actual standard deviation computed using Excel for each of the WNH columns. It ranges from about 15 to 18 for pick 4 or, pick 5 games.

The Help files will also tell you that – I quote “This tool does not predict any data. It just provides probability of history sum increase or decrease based on statistics from draw simulationâ€￾

I have found that the overall predictive accuracy of the information in the table to approximate 65-70% - about one standard deviation – just as expected.

There are no errors in the Table that I am aware of.

Bobijohn

PS. Added the word "predictive" in second to last paragraph.

[lottoboy]

[quote=Bobijohn]
lottoboy

Please read the Help files – they will answer most of what you ask. They clearly describe how the Increase/Decrease is derived plus have an excellent description of the meaning and derivation of each of the columns/values etc. Search for Simulation.

The Median value is a recent addition. It is what it is and therefore not adjustable. The difference value given is the difference between the median value and the sum value shown in column 2. That is all – it has nothing to do with the Increase/Decrease shown. If you are looking for a tolerance value then pay attention to the standard deviation. I prefer to use the actual standard deviation computed using Excel for each of the WNH columns. It ranges from about 15 to 18 for pick 4 or, pick 5 games.

The Help files will also tell you that – I quote “This tool does not predict any data. It just provides probability of history sum increase or decrease based on statistics from draw simulationâ€￾

I have found that the overall predictive accuracy of the information in the table to approximate 65-70% - about one standard deviation – just as expected.

There are no errors in the Table that I am aware of.

Bobijohn

PS. Added the word "predictive" in second to last paragraph.
[/quote]

Hi, Bobijohn:

Thanks for your attention and I will revew the HELP for my questions above again.

In addition, I'm very happy to know that you are playing Pick-5 too. Could you share your great strategy for pick-5 with us?

"If you are looking for a tolerance value then pay attention to the standard deviation. I prefer to use the actual standard deviation computed using Excel for each of the WNH columns. It ranges from about 15 to 18 for pick 4 or, pick 5 games."

How can I use the act StdDve in the Sim table to search for a tolerence value for next draw? What information should tell us from about 15 to 18 for p4 or p5? Increase or Decrease?

"I have found that the overall predictive accuracy of the information in the table to approximate 65-70% - about one standard deviation – just as expected."

I'm still not clear the meaning about your strategy above. Could you give me a quick lesson for that? Thanks.

Best,
lb

[lottoboy]

[quote=lottoboy]
[quote=Bobijohn]
lottoboy

Please read the Help files – they will answer most of what you ask. They clearly describe how the Increase/Decrease is derived plus have an excellent description of the meaning and derivation of each of the columns/values etc. Search for Simulation.

The Median value is a recent addition. It is what it is and therefore not adjustable. The difference value given is the difference between the median value and the sum value shown in column 2. That is all – it has nothing to do with the Increase/Decrease shown. If you are looking for a tolerance value then pay attention to the standard deviation. I prefer to use the actual standard deviation computed using Excel for each of the WNH columns. It ranges from about 15 to 18 for pick 4 or, pick 5 games.

The Help files will also tell you that – I quote “This tool does not predict any data. It just provides probability of history sum increase or decrease based on statistics from draw simulationâ€￾

I have found that the overall predictive accuracy of the information in the table to approximate 65-70% - about one standard deviation – just as expected.

There are no errors in the Table that I am aware of.

Bobijohn

PS. Added the word "predictive" in second to last paragraph.
[/quote]

Hi, Bobijohn:

Thanks for your attention and I will revew the HELP for my questions above again.

In addition, I'm very happy to know that you are playing Pick-5 too. Could you share your great strategy for pick-5 with us?

"If you are looking for a tolerance value then pay attention to the standard deviation. I prefer to use the actual standard deviation computed using Excel for each of the WNH columns. It ranges from about 15 to 18 for pick 4 or, pick 5 games."

How can I use the act StdDve in the Sim table to search for a tolerence value for next draw? What information should tell us from about 15 to 18 for p4 or p5? Increase or Decrease?

"I have found that the overall predictive accuracy of the information in the table to approximate 65-70% - about one standard deviation – just as expected."

I'm still not clear the meaning about your strategy above. Could you give me a quick lesson for that? Thanks.

Best,
lb
[/quote]

Hi, Bobijohn:

In other words, how can I calculate the actual StdDev by Excel for each of the WNH Col.? Could you give me a link of posts about your Excel? Thanks.

Best,
lb

[PadawanLotto]

[quote=lottoboy]
Hi, Bobijohn:

In other words, how can I calculate the actual StdDev by Excel for each of the WNH Col.? Could you give me a link of posts about your Excel? Thanks.

Best,
lb
[/quote]How are you going to enter each StdDev into each column?

[lottoboy]

[quote=PadawanLotto]
[quote=lottoboy]
Hi, Bobijohn:

In other words, how can I calculate the actual StdDev by Excel for each of the WNH Col.? Could you give me a link of posts about your Excel? Thanks.

Best,
lb
[/quote]How are you going to enter each StdDev into each column?
[/quote]

Hi, Padawan:

Thanks for your attention!
My questions came from Bobijohn's reply for my post yesterday:

"If you are looking for a tolerance value then pay attention to the standard deviation. I prefer to use the actual standard deviation computed using Excel for each of the WNH columns. It ranges from about 15 to 18 for pick 4 or, pick 5 games."

I want to use the actual StdDev for the setting of WNH ranges. Could you help me for that? Thanks.

Best,
lb

[PadawanLotto]

[quote=lottoboy]
"If you are looking for a tolerance value then pay attention to the standard deviation. I prefer to use the actual standard deviation computed using Excel for each of the WNH columns. It ranges from about 15 to 18 for pick 4 or, pick 5 games."

I want to use the actual StdDev for the setting of WNH ranges. Could you help me for that? Thanks.

Best,
lb
[/quote]Sorry I can't help you there but I can tell you that if the winning StdDev diff was say 15.53 and you set the WNH StdDev diffs filter to 15.53 to 15.54 yes you will have only a few hundred tickets but the WNH differences and sums will still nearly be at there extreme min/max values. Trying to find even the winning StdDev diff range between whole numbers like 15 to 18 is going to be tough.

The WNH StdDev difference range for my 5/39 is 9 to 18 if I want it to pass nearly every draw. If you think you are going to find the difference StdDev within a tight range good luck. Have you looked at the WN History Summary Table in the winning StdDev Diffs column for your lottery?

[Bobijohn]

Hi Folks.

Perhaps a little clarification may be helpful.

lottoboy. Sorry, I don’t have a link to Excel spreadsheets. You will need to export the WNH differences summary table and import that into Excel. Then use the standard built-in functions to compute the standard deviation for each of the 11 columns. Elsewhere in this forum there are directions on how to perform the export/import procedure. Once in Excel you can “Googleâ€￾ how to use the standard built-in mathematical and statistical functions to get the standard deviation and many other useful statistics.

PadawanLotto. The standard deviations given are approximate for each column. In other words, the standard deviation for column -0 may be 15.8 and that for column -7 may be 17.5. Their use would be to take ± these values around whatever predicted sum has been chosen. This is just an alternative to using ± 20, as has been mentioned often in the forum. It just provides a statistical basis for the choice – no more, no less. I agree with you that to try and set the WNH difference between 15 and 18 would be useless. That is not what I intended.

Just a comment. As for accurately predicting the sum for each column – well, we would all like to know how to do that. However, I will add that if you just took the sum from the last draw and applied it to the next draw in conjunction with the standard deviations derived for each column of your draw as described above you will have all 11 columns in tolerance about 1.5% of the time (67.5%^11=1.5%) taken over >1000 draws. However, if you use the median values as the predicted sums (disregarding the cautionary comment in the help files) for the next draw and apply the standard deviation derived in Excel this percentage increases to about 2.0%. Anyway, on this basis, for a lottery that plays twice a week you could expect to have the winning ticket once per year assuming you did this consistently. The problem is that for a large lottery this still gives too many tickets for most of us to play. So now we are back to additional filtering and their related risks of losing the winning ticket. This is comment is given just as an example to demonstrate the use of the mean and standard deviation to set a predicted sum and tolerance level respectively. Most of my experimental analysis is performed on a pick 4 lottery just for speed and simplicity. The same principles would apply to other lotteries with slightly different results.

That is about all I have on this topic.

Good Luck Guy’s.

Bobijohn.

[lottoboy]

[quote=PadawanLotto]
[quote=lottoboy]
"If you are looking for a tolerance value then pay attention to the standard deviation. I prefer to use the actual standard deviation computed using Excel for each of the WNH columns. It ranges from about 15 to 18 for pick 4 or, pick 5 games."

I want to use the actual StdDev for the setting of WNH ranges. Could you help me for that? Thanks.

Best,
lb
[/quote]Sorry I can't help you there but I can tell you that if the winning StdDev diff was say 15.53 and you set the WNH StdDev diffs filter to 15.53 to 15.54 yes you will have only a few hundred tickets but the WNH differences and sums will still nearly be at there extreme min/max values. Trying to find even the winning StdDev diff range between whole numbers like 15 to 18 is going to be tough.

The WNH StdDev difference range for my 5/39 is 9 to 18 if I want it to pass nearly every draw. If you think you are going to find the difference StdDev within a tight range good luck. Have you looked at the WN History Summary Table in the winning StdDev Diffs column for your lottery?
[/quote]

Hi, Padawan:

Yes, I have. But I have not yet understood its use
for my purpose. I'm learning Bobijohn's Strategy which is very interesting now. Thanks.

Best,
lb

[lottoboy]

[quote=Bobijohn]
Hi Folks.

Perhaps a little clarification may be helpful.

lottoboy. Sorry, I don’t have a link to Excel spreadsheets. You will need to export the WNH differences summary table and import that into Excel. Then use the standard built-in functions to compute the standard deviation for each of the 11 columns. Elsewhere in this forum there are directions on how to perform the export/import procedure. Once in Excel you can “Googleâ€￾ how to use the standard built-in mathematical and statistical functions to get the standard deviation and many other useful statistics.

PadawanLotto. The standard deviations given are approximate for each column. In other words, the standard deviation for column -0 may be 15.8 and that for column -7 may be 17.5. Their use the cawould be to take ± these values around whatever predicted sum has been chosen. This is just an alternative to using ± 20, as has been mentioned often in the forum. It just provides a statistical basis for the choice – no more, no less. I agree with you that to try and set the WNH difference between 15 and 18 would be useless. That is not what I intended.

Just a comment. As for accurately predicting the sum for each column – well, we would all like to know how to do that. However, I will add that if you just took the sum from the last draw and applied it to the next draw in conjunction with the standard deviations derived for each column of your draw as described above you will have all 11 columns in tolerance about 1.5% of the time (67.5%^11=1.5%) taken over >1000 draws. However, if you use the median values as the predicted sums (disregarding the cautionary comment in the help files) for the next draw and apply the standard deviation derived in Excel this percentage increases to about 2.0%. Anyway, on this basis, for a lottery that plays twice a week you could expect to have the winning ticket once per year assuming you did this consistently. The problem is that for a large lottery this still gives too many tickets for most of us to play. So now we are back to additional filtering and their related risks of losing the winning ticket. This is comment is given just as an example to demonstrate the use of the mean and standard deviation to set a predicted sum and tolerance level respectively. Most of my experimental analysis is performed on a pick 4 lottery just for speed and simplicity. The same principles would apply to other lotteries with slightly different results.

That is about all I have on this topic.

Good Luck Guy’s.

Bobijohn.
[/quote]

Hi, Bobijohn:

Thanks for your helpful reply. I'm very interesting with your Strategy about StdDev Diff. I can compute it by Excel but I don't know how can use it for setting a predicted sum and tolerance level respectively. Could you give me an example by using your Pick-4 in detail for that? Thanks.

Best,
lb

[lottoboy]

[quote=Bobijohn]
Hi Folks.

Perhaps a little clarification may be helpful.

lottoboy. Sorry, I don’t have a link to Excel spreadsheets. You will need to export the WNH differences summary table and import that into Excel. Then use the standard built-in functions to compute the standard deviation for each of the 11 columns. Elsewhere in this forum there are directions on how to perform the export/import procedure. Once in Excel you can “Googleâ€￾ how to use the standard built-in mathematical and statistical functions to get the standard deviation and many other useful statistics.

PadawanLotto. The standard deviations given are approximate for each column. In other words, the standard deviation for column -0 may be 15.8 and that for column -7 may be 17.5. Their use would be to take ± these values around whatever predicted sum has been chosen. This is just an alternative to using ± 20, as has been mentioned often in the forum. It just provides a statistical basis for the choice – no more, no less. I agree with you that to try and set the WNH difference between 15 and 18 would be useless. That is not what I intended.

Just a comment. As for accurately predicting the sum for each column – well, we would all like to know how to do that. However, I will add that if you just took the sum from the last draw and applied it to the next draw in conjunction with the standard deviations derived for each column of your draw as described above you will have all 11 columns in tolerance about 1.5% of the time (67.5%^11=1.5%) taken over >1000 draws. However, if you use the median values as the predicted sums (disregarding the cautionary comment in the help files) for the next draw and apply the standard deviation derived in Excel this percentage increases to about 2.0%. Anyway, on this basis, for a lottery that plays twice a week you could expect to have the winning ticket once per year assuming you did this consistently. The problem is that for a large lottery this still gives too many tickets for most of us to play. So now we are back to additional filtering and their related risks of losing the winning ticket. This is comment is given just as an example to demonstrate the use of the mean and standard deviation to set a predicted sum and tolerance level respectively. Most of my experimental analysis is performed on a pick 4 lottery just for speed and simplicity. The same principles would apply to other lotteries with slightly different results.

That is about all I have on this topic.

Good Luck Guy’s.

Bobijohn.
[/quote]

Hi, Stan:

I think that Bobijohn's strategy about the mean and standard deviation to set a predicted sum and tolerance level would work for all lotto. And it may be a good supportive tool for the main filter of ± 20/9-11 in EL.

Could you want to check its accuracy further? If the answer is positive, could you add it to our EL as a new Statistics or Filter tool? Thanks.

Best,
lb