trend predictor interpretation

[stan]

here's another tip for things to watch when interpreting predictor results.

if you see results like this:
[m]Decrease (44-54-2), success rate=83,33% (15/3+0), best pattern size=6, prediction type=StdDev( Trends )
Decrease (48-50-2), success rate=83,33% (15/3+0), best pattern size=6, prediction type=StdDev( Values )
Decrease (42-55-2), success rate=83,33% (15/3+0), best pattern size=18, prediction type=Trend Position Match, minimum match ratio=0,7
Decrease (42-56-1), success rate=83,33% (15/3+0), best pattern size=7, prediction type=Trend Position Match, minimum match ratio=0,8
Increase (50-41-8), success rate=83,33% (15/3+0), best pattern size=7, prediction type=Trend Position Match, minimum match ratio=0,9
Increase (50-41-8), success rate=83,33% (15/3+0), best pattern size=7, prediction type=Trend Position Match, minimum match ratio=1,0
[/m]
then don't bother making any predictions from them. you can see that all results show that 40%-50% matching patterns indicate increase and another 40%-50% indicate decrease. so the results are simply not decisive enough.

when i get results like this:
[m]Increase (61-37-2), success rate=85,71% (18/3+0), best pattern size=6, prediction type=StdDev( Trends )
Increase (65-31-2), success rate=85,71% (18/3+0), best pattern size=16, prediction type=Trend Position Match, minimum match ratio=0,7
Increase (59-38-2), success rate=85,71% (18/3+0), best pattern size=7, prediction type=Trend Position Match, minimum match ratio=0,8
Increase (64-32-3), success rate=85,71% (18/3+0), best pattern size=6, prediction type=Trend Position Match, minimum match ratio=0,9
Increase (64-32-3), success rate=85,71% (18/3+0), best pattern size=6, prediction type=Trend Position Match, minimum match ratio=1,0
Decrease (26-73-1), success rate=80,95% (17/4+0), best pattern size=6, prediction type=StdDev( Values )
[/m]
i would be inclined to go with the last prediction (decrease) even though it contradicts all other predictions because it has the highest difference between matching patterns that indicate increase (73%) and those that indicate decrease (26%)