Value Predictor

[scenium]

correct...
That's great!
looking forward for the new predictor.
Thanks!

[lottoboy]

[quote=Paulo:1156762352]
[quote=stan]
[quote=Paulo]
My lottery have 152 drows.

Is the value that I should consider that?

Trend prediction: Decrease
Predicted value: -2.0
[/quote]

if you're trying to predict wn history sum values then the value is obviously wrong. the current version of the value predictor knows nothing about possible minimum / maximum values. it will be fixed in some future version.
besides 152 rows may not be enough - look at your sum charts, are they distorted at their beginnings? (starting with small values and gradually rising?)
[/quote]

Stan,

You can please to interpret this example:
___________________________________________________________
Trend prediction: Same
Predicted value: 3.0
========================================================
Best pattern size: 6
Best weight: 1.0
Matching pattern: [1.0 -3.0 2.0 -1.0 -2.0 -7.0] => 2.0
Marker: 104
Back-tests: 30
Mean Square Error: 37.748259515288005
Mean Absolute Percentage Error: 1.9083068783068784
Valid trend predictions: 17 (56,7%)




Trend prediction: Decrease
Predicted value: -29.32307692307692
========================================================
Best pattern size: 13
Best weight: 1.0
Matching pattern: [-2.0 1.0 1.0 2.0 -2.0 0.0 -5.0 -3.0 -4.0 4.0 4.0 2.0 1.0] => -3.0
Marker: 132
Back-tests: 30
Mean Square Error: 91.82547521642283
Mean Absolute Percentage Error: 3.137006557861258
Valid trend predictions: 18 (60%)
[/quote]



Hi, Stan:

I have some questions about the use of Value Predictor:

1) The VP always told me : "please check your setting" when I input my WNs data (3300 draws) and run it. I'm not sure how can check and adjust
the default setting.

2) Where can I find the help file about it in EL Application HELP?

3) What's the relationship or differences between
Value Predictor and Predictions in EL?

Thanks,

Best,
lb

[stan]

[quote=lottoboy:1212448727]
1) The VP always told me : "please check your setting" when I input my WNs data (3300 draws) and run it. I'm not sure how can check and adjust
the default setting.
[/quote]
i'm sorry but it's just a beta version plugin (alpha actually) and i didn't bother with fixing error messages and input checkin. you should be able to find some examples in this forum

2) Where can I find the help file about it in EL Application HELP?

sorry, there's no help page for value predictor. it's just a beta version plugin. search this forum for my posts on value predictor.

3) What's the relationship or differences between
Value Predictor and Predictions in EL?

value predictor uses slightly different algorithm from the one which is built-in in expert lotto. the built-in predictor (based on trend predictor plugin) yielded better results when i was back-testing them

[lottoboy]

[quote=stan:1212944787]
[quote=lottoboy:1212448727]
1) The VP always told me : "please check your setting" when I input my WNs data (3300 draws) and run it. I'm not sure how can check and adjust
the default setting.
[/quote]
i'm sorry but it's just a beta version plugin (alpha actually) and i didn't bother with fixing error messages and input checkin. you should be able to find some examples in this forum

2) Where can I find the help file about it in EL Application HELP?

sorry, there's no help page for value predictor. it's just a beta version plugin. search this forum for my posts on value predictor.

3) What's the relationship or differences between
Value Predictor and Predictions in EL?

value predictor uses slightly different algorithm from the one which is built-in in expert lotto. the built-in predictor (based on trend predictor plugin) yielded better results when i was back-testing them
[/quote]

Hi, Stan:

Thanks for your detail reply!

Indeed, the performance of Predictions is better than the Value Predictor by my more than 20 back-tests. However, the Simulation of EL is much better than them.

In addition, what's the meaning of "Select alternate best" in Best Tickets Filter? I can not find its use help from EL pdf documents. Did you remenber that I had asked your help about random database of 5/39 for sorted statistics in E-mail? Do you think that I can get the ideal random tickets by using Best Tickets filter? I'm not clear what's its composition of 20K or 30K tickets after filtering from 575757 by Best Tickets filter? Overlap 3 or including JP almost? If you think the result of filtering by BT is not suitable for sorted statistics, how can I get the ideal random tickets
by using other tools in EL program instead of the Package Generator? I want to try it now. Thanks.

Best,
lb

[stan]

[quote=lottoboy:1213487910]
Indeed, the performance of Predictions is better than the Value Predictor by my more than 20 back-tests. However, the Simulation of EL is much better than them.
[/quote]
you should consider simulation results as a view of what's statistically most likely to happen in the next draw. while prediction results should point out possible 'anomalies' if they already happened in lottery history.

In addition, what's the meaning of "Select alternate best" in Best Tickets Filter? I can not find its use help from EL pdf documents.

that's an experimental option only, 'alternate best' are just nicer words for 'worst' tickets:)

Did you remenber that I had asked your help about random database of 5/39 for sorted statistics in E-mail? Do you think that I can get the ideal random tickets by using Best Tickets filter? I'm not clear what's its composition of 20K or 30K tickets after filtering from 575757 by Best Tickets filter? Overlap 3 or including JP almost? If you think the result of filtering by BT is not suitable for sorted statistics, how can I get the ideal random tickets
by using other tools in EL program instead of the Package Generator? I want to try it now. Thanks.

Best,
lb

best tickets is a filter i'd use if i had too many tickets to bet and the minimizer wouldn't reduce my package any further. the best tickets should give better chances at lower division prices than randomly selecting tickets from a large package to bet.

[lottoboy]

Hi, Stan:

Thanks for your reply! But I still not sure if or not the result of filtering by BT is suitable for sorted statistics??? Also, what's its composition of 20K or 30K tickets after filtering from 575757 by Best Tickets filter? Overlap 3 or 4 even including JP almost? How can get the ideal tickets from EL for sort statistics instead of full package tickets? Thanks.

Best regards,
lb

[stan]

best tickets doesn't favor any specific numbers and it doesn't keep the jackpot ticket. it increases your chances for lower tier prizes while reducing the costs.

[lottoboy]

[quote=stan]
best tickets doesn't favor any specific numbers and it doesn't keep the jackpot ticket. it increases your chances for lower tier prizes while reducing the costs.
[/quote]

If so, how can I get the random tickets like 5if6 random tickets of 6/49 for my 5/39? Thanks.

Best Regards,
lb

[stan]

use random generator with maximum overlap of 3(??) and let it run for a couple of hours

[lottoboy]

[quote=stan]
use random generator with maximum overlap of 3(??) and let it run for a couple of hours
[/quote]

I did but it stopped to run when 541 tickets for overlap of 3 since my PC.
Could you help us for that like 5if6 of 6/49? Thanks.

In addition, how about your update version about Strategy 1 & 2?

Best regards,
lb

[stan]

[quote=lottoboy]
[quote=stan]
use random generator with maximum overlap of 3(??) and let it run for a couple of hours
[/quote]

I did but it stopped to run when 541 tickets for overlap of 3 since my PC.
Could you help us for that like 5if6 of 6/49? Thanks.
[/quote]
that might the result you're looking for, just check its win coverage.

In addition, how about your update version about Strategy 1 & 2?

i'm afraid that bobes is completely consumed by his non-expert lotto business at the moment...