1.) WN History Ranges

1.) WN History Ranges

Postby Ophiuchus » Thu Mar 05, 2009 2:27 am

Early on you described a strategy for using a WN History strategy. In section 1, you made a few statements.

Statement:
"That depends very much on the shape of the history differences table and on the estimates from the Sum Chart and Differences chart."

This is the statement that has raised my eyebrow. Of course, there are sentences before this one that probably sets the context.

Statement prior:
"However it's possible to use a wider interval, especially when expecting a higher negative difference of the future sum."

Soooo.... Talk to me about the shape of the history difference table and if that drives the estimates of the Sum and Differences Chart.

I have genuinely been practicing my skills at setting the ranges for the 11 different sum values. What upsets my ranges outside of being genuinely wrong in a given instance for a given direction. It is the unxpected large magnitude change in a sum (positive or negative) that is seen in the summary table.

What I have seen at least in my game is that the sum values do not oscilate from game to game up and down. I guess what I am saying is that when a sum value is moving in a certain direction there is no reason for you to believe it is going in the opposite direction (in general) until it does at least a few times.

Sorry if my thoughts seem very fragmented. I do see trends in the sum. Tonight is the first time I have set the sum filter values that have returned over 5000 combs. We will see tonight how well that does. What I do like is when I set my sum filter values that return very few values. Which is what has been happening to me most of the time. If I could some how understand the random large magnitude sum change or at least which column that will exhibit that behavior. I might be able to trinagulate ...

Anyways I am rambling a bit now. However in my random thoughts I was hoping to understand more about shapes in the history difference table ...

:cool:
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Postby stan » Thu Mar 05, 2009 8:19 pm

[quote=Ophiuchus]
Soooo.... Talk to me about the shape of the history difference table and if that drives the estimates of the Sum and Differences Chart.
[/quote]
it's quite simple - if the majority of numbers are massed in the first few rows it's very likely that the sum will increase in the next draw, if the table has many rows and numbers from the bottom of the table are expected to be drawn (e.g. based on other stats/estimates) then the sum will decrease
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Postby Ophiuchus » Mon Mar 09, 2009 12:31 am

Stan ...

I think I understand, but could you draw me a picture. I am not trying to hold you to the absolute truth, but I want to know exactly what to look for then let my intuition take over...

By the way, I am noticed a lagging effect. On 3/4/09, I had 7 out of 10 correct. The values I missed were (0)+3,(-5)+1,(-6)-24,(-10)-4.The only bad news is that EL kicked out 5450 combs. No biggie, I am just practicing my kata. However, I test that package again on 3/6/09 and found that I had 5/6 in that set.

What is your opinion?

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Postby stan » Tue Mar 10, 2009 10:28 pm

if the table looks like this (very condensed) i'd be betting on a sum increase in the next draw
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Postby stan » Tue Mar 10, 2009 10:29 pm

in this case i'd be guessing decrease or diffs around zero....
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