Basic facts

[stan]

* the system provides 100% guarantee of finding the jackpot winning ticket if you provide the correct input

* basically you must correctly estimate the trend in eleven charts presented in the application, i.e. whether each chart will rise or fall after the next draw

* the program allows for certain error margin so you don't have to guess the absolute value but rather an interval where the next chart value will be

* smaller error margins lead to small number of tickets after filtering, bigger error margins lead to more tickets passing the filter. the recommended settings (+10/-10) yield tens to hundreds of tickets after filtering while maintaining the 100% guarantee of including the jackpot winning ticket

* it is not easy to estimate the chart trends correctly! even one wrong estimate means that the jackpot ticket is lost.

* on the other hand there are additional support tools and there are patterns to be spotted

* this is a jackpot system. most of other lottery software try to maximize to number of smaller winnings while expert lotto gives you a chance to aim for the jackpot

* novice expert lotto users should open this link to get started with wn history features: http://www.expertlotto.com/en/help/en/howtoplay/howto_wnhistory.htm

* if you have any question, suggestion or problem with wn history post them here. we'll try to provide more informaiton over the time as well

[PadawanLotto]

Great stuff stan, the heart and soul of Expert Lotto Pro is the Winning Numbers History. The basics are true but, to some can be misleading but the statement that everyone must remember is " It is not easy " . The best course of action is to get an Understanding of How the Winning Numbers History Works.
I had read somewhere that in the History Differences page the segments affect the sum value and that in the third segment the numbers from there would be used if you were to expect a big drop in the sum value.

I work with Mega Millions drawings and I had a test package setup for Tuesdays drawing 4/18/06. I didn't even get a two number match, oh well. But what I did get out of tonights drawing was Knowledge Woooooooo! :vogel: The number 13 was drawn tonight and it's the first time it has been drawn in the past 62 drawings. I looked at the Summary Table and saw that the sum value went down in column 0 just like the Simulation had predicted but, it went down more than expected, -36 and the drawing before that went down -35. So that made me think about the statment that I read " The numbers from the third segment they're to be used if you to to expect a big drop in the sum value ". I looked to see why the last drawing had a big drop in sum value and found that there were two numbers in the last drawing that had gone a long time without being drawn. The number 10 went 33 drawings before it was drawn again and the number 33 went 38 drawings. I then reminded myself why I was so enthusiastic about Expert Lotto, the fact that it was looking at occurrences of the numbers drawn, I have been looking at occurrences for a long time.

When making decisions for sum value movement be it up or down, you need to take in account where each of the numbers were last drawn and when will they hit next. This is where the three segments of History Differences come in play.

In the History Differences table, viewing column 0, you can see where all of the numbers were last drawn. I have a simular table that I have been using for years but it's upside down compared to this one. In the Statistics page Calculate all draws, go to the Ticket Numbers table and click on the heading " Latest " so that it shows the numbers in assending order, it shows the hits/skips and overall occurrence of each number. First thing to think about is wheither those last set of numbers that were drawn in your lottery game are going to repeat in the next drawing. If you don't think so, here are some of the numbers that you can eliminate from your package right off the bat.

Next I would probably look at the numbers that haven't hit in the longest time and try to deciede wheither one of these numbers might be drawn in the next drawing. There might just be some keepers here boys and girls!

Well I must go study some more.

[lottobrain]

Great comments Stan and PadawanLotto. PadawanLotto you are really getting in to this program. As Stan says, "This a Jackpot program". I haven't been able to get more than 3 of 6 tickets in 6 number pick lotto and 2 of 5 tickets in 5 number pick lotto. While trying to get a jackpot, I would like to win a little more, so I am hoping to work out a strategy using the program to pick some alternative plays that might lead to some 4 of 6 winners and maybe once in awhile a 5 of 6, while trying the "sums" use approach in another set of tickets. I was trying to figure out how to enter just the numbers I wanted to use in a wheeling system and could not see in the program where I could do just that. But aftr reading these posts I think I get the idea now. What I would do I assume, is to select the numbers I want to play and then in the ticket opening screen I would select those numbers I don't want to use , and then have all of them filtered out with various filters until I am left with tickets containing only those numbers I want to use. Say I keep 20 numbers in out of my 6/35 lottery, and then use various filetrs to reduce these down....or maybe use the "sums" technique on these to try to get a small amount of tickets to play in hopes of getting a 4 of 6 win or better. Is any of this possible in this program? I used to use a chart in my lotto selections (as I mentioned in another post) similar to the "0" column of History difference which told me the draw positions that each number had hit in last. I kept a running draw chart that showed me each draw where the position was that each number drawn came from. Then to select numbers to play for the next draw, I didn't select the actual numbers directly from my history chart, but instead, selected "positions" that I thought were due to produce a drawn number for the next drawing. I would select maybe 6 to 8 positions and select 1 or 2 numbers from each of these draw positions to use in my wheel. Keeping the chart I mentioned would show me the positions that would produce the most numbers over time. In a 6 out of 35 lotto, a number averages repeating from one draw to the next almost every drawing, so I would always have to consider the first row of History Difference "0" chart to pick a couple of numbers from. I'm going to try using some of the stats produced by Expert Lotto to use as a selection basis. For example in my worksheet, I might make my History difference chart on paper and under each number place the total value from the last total column from the "sums" page for each digit in the lottery. I might also develop another History chart to track what is the total value of each drawn number to get an idea of the range of number values to select from for the next drawing. I'm sure all 6 drawn numbers will not be the 6 most overdue by the largest "sum" value...and the winning 6 will not be the "hottest" low value sums, etc., but a little of both with maybe 4 of the numbers coming from the more average ranges. Hope this makes sense to others.

[PadawanLotto]

Hi lottobrain, I have a chart like the one that your talking about that I made in Excel. Expert Lotto will show you the same things but in a different way. It's hard for me to get use to looking at all the numbers, sums, occurrences, and differences after viewing my side by side color coded last hit and past drawing table.

To generate tickets using only the numbers that you choose Open the Ticket Generator and click on Generate maximum possible number of tickets. Next set the Ticket numbers range to the amount of numbers that you chose for play. Then go to the numbers pad and switch the numbers to the numbers that you want to play. Click on number 1 and then click on the number that you want it to be and so on. Once you've done that click OK to generate the package combinations. Filter as you see fit.

Go to the WN History page, then to the History Differences tab, click on All Draws and update. The numbers listed in the table, column 0 are all of the numbers in your game and where they were drawn last. Now you can highlight each row by clicking on it. Now go to the Visual Package page, you will see the numbers that you highlighted in History Differences highlighted in the Visual Chart. You can now choose to filter combinations from the package that don't meet your needs. Next to Remove Match in: check the boxes ( 5, 4, 3 ) and click on Remove Match in: this will filter out all of the combinations that have 3 to 5 of the highlighted numbers in them and leave all of the other combinations with 0 to 2 of the highlighted numbers in them. You can go back and repeat this for the rest of the rows in History Differences.

Becareful, if you mis-match the amount of numbers per combination, you can wipe out all of the combinations :wand: but, that's what we have the undo button for. :vogel:

Good Luck!

[stan]

another great post, padawanlotto, thank. it seems i'm no more needed in this forum

[PadawanLotto]

Thanks stan,

On the contrary, all of the help that you have given in the present and past have helped me to look at and think about things the software can do. One of the things I like about your posts is the fact that you don't always give long winded tutorials but, more of pointing in the right direction and presenting an idea. One must learn from hands on experience of read, do, and learn.

[Alcymart]

I know this question must of been asked before. Why not only 1 column to predict? Wouldn't it be easier to predict? Is it doable? I would think you already tried that right? Did you run into complications at some point or is it just that it gets too deep to code up? Let's say we wouldn't have a margin of error. What limitation did you encounter? In theory, it should be doable even though extremely complex. We can predict 4 columns right on the value and get the winning ticket, why not 3 or 2 or even 1 column. If it's not doable, 4 columns is and I ask... why 11? Is it the only amount it works with? Please explain in complex terms. I can take it.

[stan]

[quote=Alcymart]
I know this question must of been asked before. Why not only 1 column to predict? Wouldn't it be easier to predict? Is it doable? I would think you already tried that right? Did you run into complications at some point or is it just that it gets too deep to code up? Let's say we wouldn't have a margin of error. What limitation did you encounter? In theory, it should be doable even though extremely complex. We can predict 4 columns right on the value and get the winning ticket, why not 3 or 2 or even 1 column. If it's not doable, 4 columns is and I ask... why 11? Is it the only amount it works with? Please explain in complex terms. I can take it.
[/quote]

the answer is quite simple - it's the latest ocurrence and 10 previous occurence of each number. we chose 10 because when +10/-10 ranges are applied on a 6/49 lottery then there's a reasonably small number of tickets that include the jackpot one.
it's perfectly valid to 'play' one column only but even if your estimates are correct there'll be a lot of tickets after filtering.

[Alcymart]

You wrote "This value is chosen as a practical compromise resulting from the consideration of the lowest suitable value from the point of view of statistical significance (if appropriate) and the most suitable choice from the point of view of errors introduced in the estimation of ranges. Therefore this filter is difficult to apply in lotteries without sufficiently long history of winning numbers. Of course you can use several first occurrences only, however if this is the case your estimation must be extremely correct."

I understand that and that I can add a compounded filter for x amount of columns. My last question was more like, why can we not have 1 column which includes an average of the 11 columns or similar? Is it doable right now? Do we have such a feature already?

It just may be the simple fact that I don't understand how athe 11 columns work together. Tell me what limitation do we encounter when reducing the amount of columns and what is the wall we hit when doing this?

[stan]

it's difficult to summarize all the columns into a single value. each column affects other columns. if you estimate e.g. a major increase in the first column then it may be very unlikely that there'll be e.g. decrease in column -4 - it depends on the current state of winning numbers database.

there might a formula to integrate all the columns into a single value but i don't know which one...
note - we had 'sum of sums' in earlier versions of expert lotto but we've abandoned it as it didn't yield good results.

[Clem9403]

Hello all. I've been studying E.L. for almost a year now. I took a break because I was getting confused! But I'm back now and I have a question for anyone who can answer. I've been studying the HELP section on the WN History section. In the help section, there is an example of how to use this section. The example is a 6/49 game I think. Anyway, one of the steps in the example was to 'skip' the most recent draw, then do the other steps and when all is said and done, the draw that was skipped will be one of the winning tickets finally listed. I understand that and when working on a 5/39 game, I get this to work like a charm with on average about 25 tickets. The skipped draw is indeed one of the 25. Cool. BUT....Here's my question (and maybe I've overlooked something)....how do I go about getting my tickets for the current night's drawing? I can't skip the current draw because it hasn't happened yet. I back-tested and I tried not skipping anything, and I came up with over 200 tickets and the winning ticket wasn't in there. Where have I gone wrong? I do believe I can win the Lotto5 game if I can get past this one little hurdle!! Any ideas anyone?? I hope I made sense!!

[Jerzy]

Hi Clem9403,

Before you start preparing tickets for the current night's draw make sure that your winning numbers data file contains the most recent result and that nothing is skipped in this file.

The "skip" function in the history of drawn combination allows for experimentation to develop the skills which we need to use EL. Spend some time experimenting with past draws, finding the right filters for them. Experiment particularly with WNH summary filter (reading the summary chart- the next draw value will be usually within limits similar to those visible in the chart). Develop a system for dealing with segment filter ( the proportion of numbers that will be drawn from each segment is not always proportional to total number count for each segment).

Perform "Win Test" on the tickets left in the package frequently or even after each filtering. You would know immediately whether your filter setting was right or wrong.

Decision regarding the filters we should use is difficult. By using appropriate filters it is possible to reduce the package size to 1 ticket - the jackpot ticket, but it is possible only after the draw, before the draw no-one knows those filters.

The Help files and Expert Lotto Forum contain a lot of information.

[Clem9403]

Thanks Jerzy! I will admit that after I posted my question, alot of information that I had forgotten came to me. But your advice is good and it's something I know I haven't considered, so again thanks. My brain is on overdrive now!

[sliver]

[quote=Jerzy]

Perform "Win Test" on the tickets left in the package frequently or even after each filtering. You would know immediately whether your filter setting was right or wrong.

[/quote]


hi Jerzy,

can you explain a little bit more your point above, why do you use the "Win Test" and how does that let you know if your filter setting was right or wrong ?

thanks,
Sliver

[Jerzy]

Hi Sliver,

There are two situations when we can use Win Test:

1. To check performance of the package when the winning combination is drawn.

2. To check the performance of the strategy and particular filter settings when you experiment with Expert Lotto using past draws and skipping last draw(s).

In both situation you need to know the winning numbers for that draw (a jackpot ticket).

And the package should contain some tickets which you want to test, to know whether it contains the jackpot and lower division prizes.

When you test filters, the tickets in the package are those left in the package after filtering.

Click on Win Test and Package in it, enter the winning number to the Win Test panel and click on Test. The package is tested against the winning numbers. You can see immediately whether the jackpot is still present in the package or it was filtered out.

When I test filter settings and see that the jackpot ticket was removed from the package, I know that the setting was wrong and I try a different setting. This way we can develop or improve our EL skills.