Making Estimates

[Maryland]

Simon69 is awesome Stan, it would be beneficial to all of us with his imput of knowledge. By the way Thanks for the tool!

[PadawanLotto]

When your estimates are off, the numbers that are drawn are few to none in your combinations. After making your estimates and filtering the combinations note the numbers that are few to none in the filtered package of combinations using the statistics page. Then after the drawing see how many of the numbers that were drawn are in the few to none. Is there away to create a package that is just the opposite of the first package that you created?

[niceguy]

I say Simon 69 what an excellent tool that you have come up with. I am sure expert lotto users will find it a great asset. Many thanks for that

[stan]

[quote=PadawanLotto]
When your estimates are off, the numbers that are drawn are few to none in your combinations. After making your estimates and filtering the combinations note the numbers that are few to none in the filtered package of combinations using the statistics page. Then after the drawing see how many of the numbers that were drawn are in the few to none. Is there away to create a package that is just the opposite of the first package that you created?
[/quote]

i can't think of anything besides making a wheel out of those few to none numbers...

[Maryland]

[quote=Simon69:1146229717]
Hi,

Here a tool I developed last week showing some Differences statistics.

I hope it wil be useful for making differences estimates.

Here the link : http://home.tiscali.nl/lsystems/winsum.html

Step 1 (Creating Diffrences(only) export file : Select the WN History page. Next You select the Summary Table subpage. Select in the dropdown box Diffrences only and press the Update Button. Press the Export button and save the "differences only" output.

Step 2 (Importing the output in WinSum.exe) : Go to the import results page of the tool and press the Import Result Button. Select the export file. The result will be loaded in the grid. Finally press at the Copy Results button and the results will be saved and shown at the WinSum Dif. Results page....

I guess the rest is clear enough....


Later this month ehh May, I will add columns statitstics to the program...


Good luck,

Simon69
[/quote]

Simon69, the only thing I don't understand is the hit column for instance 9/8, I understand the 8 but what is the number in front?

[niceguy]

Hi Simon69.. I have just been experimenting with your excellent WinSum dif tool.. When I have finished using the tool, & wish to close it , I click on the top right hand corner "x", but the tool then dissappears & I have to start from scratch again the next time I want to use it. ( ie I have to go to the stats tool zip file & re-install it again.) Just wondering what I am doing wrong, or if there is a way around this, so I can save it to my desktop for future use? Many thanks

[niceguy]

Hi Simon 69 I just wanted to point out a previous post which I placed regarding winning number history, which I think will work in with your winning number tool. I have quoted it in this post, ( see below) but to get the attachment to come up, you may have to go to the original post. I thought that you might be able to add in a chart as described in my post, that could be bought up for each draw, to help in predicting which way the + or - will go.? ( i.e. a graphical version of your win sum dif results chart if you like ? )
Thanks



Subject: Winning Number History difference chart
Hi stan. I have been experimenting with a chart that uses the winning number History differences, and find it very useful for predicting whether the 0 to -10 winning number history rows are going to be a + or - difference. To the left hand side of the chart I made increments of 5., with 0 being the centre point. Along the top I numbered each row 0 to -10. When the results of the draw come out I put a dot in the appropriate block representing the difference number for that row. e.g. in the latest draw according to the summary history table, row -2 had difference of +12. I therefore put a dot in row -2 in the block representing +12 etc. When all the dots are joined together you get a chart of the history differences for that draw. By doing this for each draw, you are able to get a good idea of where the numbers are likely to rise or fall next. I incremented the numbers in steps of 5 to make it easier to estimate which block you think the number will rise or fall to next. E.g. if you are using + or - 10 as your difference in the winning number history filter (a difference of 20) twenty is represented by 4 of these blocks etc. I have included an attachment to make this all a bit clearer. This was taken from our latest draw. The differences for the various rows (0 to-10) from the summary history table for this draw are:- +14,-10,+12,+5,-4,-20,+1,-17,+10,+4,+5. I thought this would be a well worthwile addition to have in Expert Lotto, as it makes deciding whether each row will go + or - much easier.Hope you can follow this ok.
This post was edited 1 times, last on 04-08-2006, 03:34 by niceguyXXOO
The user has attached a file: chart7.jpg (Save, 58,661 Bytes, downloaded 29 times)

[niceguy]

Hi Stan I would love to have Simon 69 's tool incorporated in Expert Lotto. Be interesting to know what others think :finger:

[PadawanLotto]

After working with the WN History for awhile I have determined that finding or estimating the correct next sum value between +10/-10 is nearly impossible. You can not depend on Expert Lotto's predictions as far as increase/decrease as it is not 100% correct, and trying to determine which predictions of increase or decrease are correct is an nearly impossible task also. There has got to be a better way of using the WN Histroy filter.

So far I have found that after making your estimates you should look at the numbers that do not appear in your package combinations to be the ones most likely to be drawn. I know that Expert Lotto has the potential but I can't seem to find the right path to the force. I'm hoping that future tutorials and/or instructions are more useful.

[niceguy]

What do you suggest as a better alternative to winning number history?? If winning number history is not for you, then maybe Expert lotto members can help you with your own prefered system & learn from it as well?/

[Red Devil]

In answer to PadawanLotto's remarks about the almost impossible task of correctly identifying which way all 11 columns will go and by how many, I too agree that this is very difficult so there may be another way of looking at it.

I have done some analysis using Expert Lotto imported into Simon69's tool and the resulting difference table imported into Excel.

First, there are 199 rows of 11 columns originated from Expert Lotto Summary Table. This means that there are 2,189 possible outcomes for each difference in the table (199x11), eg, negative, positive or zero movement. Using a recent summary table from the UK Lotto I found that of the 2189 outcomes 1174 were positive, 964 were negative and 51 had zero difference.

Now of the 1174 positve movements 704 of the 1174 were between (1 & 15 incl), this represents 60% of all positive differences. Of the 964 negative difference 660 were between (-1 & -20), this represents 68% of all negative differences.

I can't tell which way each column will go but I suggest that after you have decided which way the column will go and approximately by how many, you then use a Max/Min allowance of +15 and -20 on your value. In 2 tests I have done so far this will leave you with approximately 200,000 to 240,000 tickets in the package which you can then use the other filters to reduce further. If you have correctly identified which way the column will go and the difference is between your max and min values then the winning line is in the package. Incidentally it is not just the winning line, but you will probably find several lines with 5 numbers and the bonus, many tens of lines with 5 numbers and endless lines with 4 and 3 numbers.

This means that you are now trying to reduce around 200,000 tickets instead of almost 14,000,000 with the conventional filters.

To help you decide which way each column will go, I have noticed the following in the analysis made;

79% of the 199 summary rows produced between 3&7 difference values Negative and between 4-8 Positive, (that's 4 out of every 5 draws).

66% of the 199 summary rows produced 4-6 columns Negative and 5-7 columns Positive, that's 2 out of every 3 draws.

Stan, I don't know if you can use this last point in any way. Normally each column difference can go either positive, negative or remain the same, if my maths is correct then this represents 1 in 3^11 = 1 in 177,147 chances of estimating each columns direction correctly.

However, if we just use say any 5 of the 11 (52 times out of 199, 30%, 1 in 3 draws) columns go negative, we reduce the 177,147 combinations to 462, (any 5from 11). Is there any way you can create a filter for this.

Hope some of this is useful to other members following this thread.

Rgds

Red Devil

[stan]

red devil, i'm not sure you're heading in the right direction. those 199 rows in the history table is just an arbitrary number. you can change it in application's preferences. so you may be looking at the last e.g. 10 draws only or at the last 500 draws as well.

as for your filter idea - i think you can implement it using option 'the difference in x to y columns is at most A to B'

also don't forget that there's option 'at least x to y columns must pass'. if you set this option to e.g. '5 to 11 columns must pass' then you are saying that up to half of your estimates may be wrong. naturally it leads to more tickets after filtering but your chances are better.

[stan]

[quote=PadawanLotto]
After working with the WN History for awhile I have determined that finding or estimating the correct next sum value between +10/-10 is nearly impossible. You can not depend on Expert Lotto's predictions as far as increase/decrease as it is not 100% correct, and trying to determine which predictions of increase or decrease are correct is an nearly impossible task also. There has got to be a better way of using the WN Histroy filter.
[/quote]
did you try option 'at least x to y columns must pass'?

I'm hoping that future tutorials and/or instructions are more useful.

we're preparing some new material, but it takes some time...

[Maryland]

[quote=stan]
[quote=PadawanLotto]
After working with the WN History for awhile I have determined that finding or estimating the correct next sum value between +10/-10 is nearly impossible. You can not depend on Expert Lotto's predictions as far as increase/decrease as it is not 100% correct, and trying to determine which predictions of increase or decrease are correct is an nearly impossible task also. There has got to be a better way of using the WN Histroy filter.
[/quote]
did you try option 'at least x to y columns must pass'?

I'm hoping that future tutorials and/or instructions are more useful.

we're preparing some new material, but it takes some time...
[/quote]



If Expert Lotto's predictions were 100% I don't think Stan would be selling the software

[stan]

[quote=Maryland]
[quote=stan]
[quote=PadawanLotto]
After working with the WN History for awhile I have determined that finding or estimating the correct next sum value between +10/-10 is nearly impossible. You can not depend on Expert Lotto's predictions as far as increase/decrease as it is not 100% correct, and trying to determine which predictions of increase or decrease are correct is an nearly impossible task also. There has got to be a better way of using the WN Histroy filter.
[/quote]
did you try option 'at least x to y columns must pass'?

I'm hoping that future tutorials and/or instructions are more useful.

we're preparing some new material, but it takes some time...
[/quote]

good point - so when expert lotto web site is off the air you know what happened...

If Expert Lotto's predictions were 100% I don't think Stan would be selling the software
[/quote]