Help reading simulation back test

Help reading simulation back test

Postby Sledge » Sun Feb 10, 2008 4:43 pm

Ok I love this feature but I'm unclear on a few things. Doing a 30 day back test I get few tests that report 11 in range.

After inspecting those that had 11 in range I noticed that the Previous/simulation and actual did not correlate correctly.

Is the table misreporting these values or am I reading them wrong. Also, does the +10 -10 on the simulation tab effect the spread on the simulations back test?

see attached images.

Thanks
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Postby Sledge » Sun Feb 10, 2008 4:45 pm

and the following day
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Postby PadawanLotto » Sun Feb 10, 2008 7:09 pm

The simulations prediction of increase or decrease is just a best guess, it doesn't mean that is the way the numbers will come out. If the simulation increase/decrease were 100% correct we would all be winning.
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Postby Sledge » Sun Feb 10, 2008 9:06 pm

Hello Padawan,

But is it not reporting the results of a back test ?
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Postby PadawanLotto » Sun Feb 10, 2008 9:32 pm

The simulation increase/decrease are shown as they would have appeared if you would have ran a simulation for that drawing. The simulation increase/decrease do not corrisponde to what the actual drawing results were.
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Postby Sledge » Sun Feb 10, 2008 9:50 pm

Thanks for taking the time to help me wrap my brain around this :red:

I guess I'm confused now. I would have assumed doing a back test would show me the results of the said drawing had we preformed a similar test at that time. The in range column tells me that on the 12th and 13th it would have had 11 simulations correctly predicted right ? or am i way off base on this
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Postby PadawanLotto » Sun Feb 10, 2008 11:38 pm

The Simulation increase/decrease can be overlooked at this point. Look at the Previous and the Actual column values, the difference between the Previous valus should be within -20/+20 in difference. The column that I have a real problem with in the Simulation back test is the Diff (act) column as the differences in this column are all wrong.
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Postby Sledge » Mon Feb 11, 2008 3:05 pm

Ok so there are error, well thanks for clearing that up for me.
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Postby stan » Wed Feb 13, 2008 10:31 pm

the result of simulation is 'in range' if the simulated value is in -20 and +20 interval of the previous value
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