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Ok I love this feature but I'm unclear on a few things. Doing a 30 day back test I get few tests that report 11 in range.

After inspecting those that had 11 in range I noticed that the Previous/simulation and actual did not correlate correctly.

Is the table misreporting these values or am I reading them wrong. Also, does the +10 -10 on the simulation tab effect the spread on the simulations back test?

see attached images.

Thanks

and the following day

The simulations prediction of increase or decrease is just a best guess, it doesn't mean that is the way the numbers will come out. If the simulation increase/decrease were 100% correct we would all be winning.

Hello Padawan,

But is it not reporting the results of a back test ?

The simulation increase/decrease are shown as they would have appeared if you would have ran a simulation for that drawing. The simulation increase/decrease do not corrisponde to what the actual drawing results were.

Thanks for taking the time to help me wrap my brain around this :red:

I guess I'm confused now. I would have assumed doing a back test would show me the results of the said drawing had we preformed a similar test at that time. The in range column tells me that on the 12th and 13th it would have had 11 simulations correctly predicted right ? or am i way off base on this

The Simulation increase/decrease can be overlooked at this point. Look at the Previous and the Actual column values, the difference between the Previous valus should be within -20/+20 in difference. The column that I have a real problem with in the Simulation back test is the Diff (act) column as the differences in this column are all wrong.

Ok so there are error, well thanks for clearing that up for me.

the result of simulation is 'in range' if the simulated value is in -20 and +20 interval of the previous value