simulation back test and file simulation

Postby stan » Fri Jan 23, 2009 7:32 pm

[quote=lottoboy:1232584119]
[quote=stan:1232222704]
[quote=Joe:1231759229]
stan, I have doubts with File Simulation,

I want to Know whether I am doing right with File Simulation,
[/quote]
you are doing it right

Now I want to know how to find occurrence of numbers in same method for next draw?

it's a 'simulation' so you can use it only to check the performance of tickets (back-test tickets) you've already selected somehow
[/quote]

I don't think you have answered Joe's question directly.
[/quote]

what i meant is that 'file simulation' is only a verification tool. you can't use it to make any predictions or estimates.
you must first create some tickets somehow and then you can use 'file simulation' to see how many winning numbers these tickets push to the top of sorted stats.
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Postby lottoboy » Sat Jan 24, 2009 6:26 am

[quote=stan]
[quote=lottoboy:1232584119]
[quote=stan:1232222704]
[quote=Joe:1231759229]
stan, I have doubts with File Simulation,

I want to Know whether I am doing right with File Simulation,
[/quote]
you are doing it right

Now I want to know how to find occurrence of numbers in same method for next draw?

it's a 'simulation' so you can use it only to check the performance of tickets (back-test tickets) you've already selected somehow
[/quote]

I don't think you have answered Joe's question directly.
[/quote]

what i meant is that 'file simulation' is only a verification tool. you can't use it to make any predictions or estimates.
you must first create some tickets somehow and then you can use 'file simulation' to see how many winning numbers these tickets push to the top of sorted stats.
[/quote]

Stan,

Thanks for your reply!

I still think Joe's suggestion is very positive and reasonable!

Why we can get the good result of the Top Occurrence from Back-test Simulation or File Simulation but we can't use it to make any predictions or estimates? Could you tell me which program or filter in your EL can get the good Top Occurrence of WN for next draw even though I have tried your "sorted statistics" long time but nothing until now?

I do hope your V5 of EL can be improved more effectively and be focus on FEWER BUT BETTER!

Sorry for my direct speech.
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Postby stan » Mon Jan 26, 2009 10:27 pm

[quote=lottoboy:1232771199]
Why we can get the good result of the Top Occurrence from Back-test Simulation or File Simulation but we can't use it to make any predictions or estimates?
[/quote]
i'm afraid you still don't understand how back-testing and file simulation relate to other expert lotto features. but i don't know how to explain better than what i already did...

Could you tell me which program or filter in your EL can get the good Top Occurrence of WN for next draw even though I have tried your "sorted statistics" long time but nothing until now?

any filter will push numbers to the top if your estimates for that filter are correct.
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Postby lottoboy » Fri Jan 30, 2009 3:21 am

[quote=stan:1233001639]
[quote=lottoboy:1232771199]
Why we can get the good result of the Top Occurrence from Back-test Simulation or File Simulation but we can't use it to make any predictions or estimates?
[/quote]
i'm afraid you still don't understand how back-testing and file simulation relate to other expert lotto features. but i don't know how to explain better than what i already did...

Could you tell me which program or filter in your EL can get the good Top Occurrence of WN for next draw even though I have tried your "sorted statistics" long time but nothing until now?

any filter will push numbers to the top if your estimates for that filter are correct.
[/quote]

Stan,

Thanks for your sincere reply!

Maybe you’re misunderstanding my opinion. I have clearly known that the Back Test Sim. is for past drawings and the Simulation is for next drawing. My means is that I don’t understand why we can get good results which are getting all six #s within 25 Top occurrences in most of the cases by using the Back Test Sim. but we can’t by using the Simulation even with the same settings of 9/11 and +/- 20?

Obviously, there are different models or algorithms between the Back test sim and Simulation. Could you improve the Simulation like the Back test simulation?

You said:â€￾ any filter will push numbers to the top if your estimates for that filter are correctâ€￾

It’s not truth. I did lot of back-tests by using the FILTERS OF WHN-SUM AND HD for my pick-5, Pick-6 (44/6, 49/6 and 59/6) and pick-10 following your "EL Team Strategies Part (1) & Part (2)" in the Forum of Jackpot during about 2 years by ordered EL. The results of Top Occurrences (you said it as Sorted Statistics) are not ideal even though the JP left in the package. I’m not sure why? Could you take an example from any live lotto game in the world to instruct us for the figure of TOP OCCURRENCES (or SORTED STATISTICS) in detail? Thanks.

Best,
lottoboy
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Postby stan » Tue Feb 03, 2009 11:17 pm

[quote=lottoboy:1233278489]
Maybe you’re misunderstanding my opinion. I have clearly known that the Back Test Sim. is for past drawings and the Simulation is for next drawing. My means is that I don’t understand why we can get good results which are getting all six #s within 25 Top occurrences in most of the cases by using the Back Test Sim. but we can’t by using the Simulation even with the same settings of 9/11 and +/- 20?
[/quote]
simulation back-test uses pre-defined and known ranges for each ticket and then simply calculates stats for passing tickets.
on the other hand simulation tab throws random tickets (or whatever you pass in) at the latest wn history sums and then calculates new ranges from average values of all simulated tickets. that means there's a lot of noise in this case...

It’s not truth. I did lot of back-tests by using the FILTERS OF WHN-SUM AND HD for my pick-5, Pick-6 (44/6, 49/6 and 59/6) and pick-10 following your "EL Team Strategies Part (1) & Part (2)" in the Forum of Jackpot during about 2 years by ordered EL. The results of Top Occurrences (you said it as Sorted Statistics) are not ideal even though the JP left in the package. I’m not sure why? Could you take an example from any live lotto game in the world to instruct us for the figure of TOP OCCURRENCES (or SORTED STATISTICS) in detail? Thanks.

i think the problem is that you use the full package when filtering wnh sums - this introduces a lot of 'alternate solutions' (that's the term used in the strategies documents i think). so the actual winning numbers won't appear at the top of sorted stats.
however if you apply the same filter on reduced set of tickets, i.e. random-5if6 then you will get the winning numbers at the top - but the chance for jackpot is much lower of course.
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Postby lottoboy » Thu Feb 05, 2009 5:25 am

[quote=stan:1233695822]
[quote=lottoboy:1233278489]
Maybe you’re misunderstanding my opinion. I have clearly known that the Back Test Sim. is for past drawings and the Simulation is for next drawing. My means is that I don’t understand why we can get good results which are getting all six #s within 25 Top occurrences in most of the cases by using the Back Test Sim. but we can’t by using the Simulation even with the same settings of 9/11 and +/- 20?
[/quote]
simulation back-test uses pre-defined and known ranges for each ticket and then simply calculates stats for passing tickets.
on the other hand simulation tab throws random tickets (or whatever you pass in) at the latest wn history sums and then calculates new ranges from average values of all simulated tickets. that means there's a lot of noise in this case...

It’s not truth. I did lot of back-tests by using the FILTERS OF WHN-SUM AND HD for my pick-5, Pick-6 (44/6, 49/6 and 59/6) and pick-10 following your "EL Team Strategies Part (1) & Part (2)" in the Forum of Jackpot during about 2 years by ordered EL. The results of Top Occurrences (you said it as Sorted Statistics) are not ideal even though the JP left in the package. I’m not sure why? Could you take an example from any live lotto game in the world to instruct us for the figure of TOP OCCURRENCES (or SORTED STATISTICS) in detail? Thanks.

i think the problem is that you use the full package when filtering wnh sums - this introduces a lot of 'alternate solutions' (that's the term used in the strategies documents i think). so the actual winning numbers won't appear at the top of sorted stats.
however if you apply the same filter on reduced set of tickets, i.e. random-5if6 then you will get the winning numbers at the top - but the chance for jackpot is much lower of course.
[/quote]

Yes, I used to the Full Package for my game generally since I can not generate the random package like your 5if6. Could you add the function
which can generate it (like your 5if6 but the current one) for any lotto game easily by users in the Ticket Generator in your new V5 EL? Thanks.

Best,
lb
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Postby stan » Thu Feb 05, 2009 12:45 pm

[quote=lottoboy]
Yes, I used to the Full Package for my game generally since I can not generate the random package like your 5if6.
[/quote]
why?
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Postby lottoboy » Fri Feb 06, 2009 7:44 am

[quote=stan]
[quote=lottoboy]
Yes, I used to the Full Package for my game generally since I can not generate the random package like your 5if6.
[/quote]
why?
[/quote]

I can download your 5if6 file from the Forum when I'm playing the 6/39
but I'm not sure how can I generate the random file like your 5if6 when I'm playing the 6/59 or 6/44 even 5/39.
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Postby lottoboy » Tue Feb 10, 2009 5:49 pm

[quote=stan:1233830713]
[quote=lottoboy]
Yes, I used to the Full Package for my game generally since I can not generate the random package like your 5if6.
[/quote]
why?
[/quote]

Stan,

I have remembered that I tried it following your method but failed since my pc was too overheat to work and very very time consuming for the program.

In other words, we can not get the random file like your 5if6 by using regular pc.
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Postby stan » Sat Feb 14, 2009 8:52 pm

[quote=lottoboy:1234280962]
[quote=stan:1233830713]
[quote=lottoboy]
Yes, I used to the Full Package for my game generally since I can not generate the random package like your 5if6.
[/quote]
why?
[/quote]

Stan,

I have remembered that I tried it following your method but failed since my pc was too overheat to work and very very time consuming for the program.

In other words, we can not get the random file like your 5if6 by using regular pc.
[/quote]

5if6 file for 6/49 was generated using a regular pc (2ghz cpu). if you have a slow machine, you can ask a friend with faster pc to generate the file for you
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Postby lottoboy » Sun Feb 15, 2009 1:41 am

[quote=stan]
[quote=lottoboy:1234280962]
[quote=stan:1233830713]
[quote=lottoboy]
Yes, I used to the Full Package for my game generally since I can not generate the random package like your 5if6.
[/quote]
why?
[/quote]

Stan,

I have remembered that I tried it following your method but failed since my pc was too overheat to work and very very time consuming for the program.

In other words, we can not get the random file like your 5if6 by using regular pc.
[/quote]

5if6 file for 6/49 was generated using a regular pc (2ghz cpu). if you have a slow machine, you can ask a friend with faster pc to generate the file for you
[/quote]

Thanks, Stan!

I want to try it late.
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