simulation back test and file simulation

simulation back test and file simulation

Postby alland » Sun Apr 13, 2008 4:33 am

can i get a brief description of what tickets to use in simulation back test and
and the file simulation.

i have a 155,313 simulation file that i have always used.

thanks
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Postby stan » Fri Apr 18, 2008 6:55 pm

simulation back-test shows a kind of statistics how your lottery performs with +/-20, 9-11 settings:

* select a simulation file in 'simulation tickets', i recommend using the test file from expert lotto strategy or a file with similar characteristics
* update wn history values (button 'update')
* click 'start simulation'
* the simulator will calculate wnh sums for the simulation tickets and calculate average sum values for each column
* then it will filter the simulation tickets with settings 'avg +/- 20 * trend' and with condition 9-11 columns must pass. the trend is percentage value of probability of increase/decrease. so if the simulation shows e.g. 62% chance of increase then the differences used in the filter will be -0.38*40 and +0.62*40 respectively. if the simulation shows e.g. 70% percent chance of decrease then the filter ranges will be -0.7*40 and +0.3*40 respectively
* statistics for number occurrences of passed tickets are calculated
* the steps above are repeated for the selected number of latest draws
* the first table then shows how many columns were in the 'avg +/- 20 * trend' range for each back-test draw. click any row in that table to display detailed results.
* actual values with red background are columns where the actual wnh sum values were not the filtered range
* the table below shows number occurrences of filtered tickets, red background highlights the actual numbers from back-test draw
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Postby stan » Fri Apr 18, 2008 6:58 pm

i have to revisit source code to find out what file simulation is supposed to do:) i'll post it here tommorrow
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Postby lottoboy » Fri May 09, 2008 6:46 am

[quote=stan:1208537728]

* select a simulation file in 'simulation tickets', i recommend using the test file from expert lotto strategy or a file with similar characteristics

[/quote]

Hi, Stan:

Where can I find the simulation file in 'simulation tickets' in EL? Thanks.

Best,
lb
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Postby lottoboy » Fri May 09, 2008 7:39 am

[quote=stan:1208537728]

* the table below shows number occurrences of filtered tickets, red background highlights the actual numbers from back-test draw
[/quote]

Also, where is "the table below shows number occurrences of filtered tickets...."? Thanks.

Best,
lb
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Postby stan » Thu May 15, 2008 7:24 pm

[quote=lottoboy:1210308361]
[quote=stan:1208537728]

* select a simulation file in 'simulation tickets', i recommend using the test file from expert lotto strategy or a file with similar characteristics

[/quote]

Hi, Stan:

Where can I find the simulation file in 'simulation tickets' in EL? Thanks.

Best,
lb
[/quote]

save any package contents to a file and then browse for that file
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Postby stan » Thu May 15, 2008 7:24 pm

[quote=lottoboy:1210311569]
[quote=stan:1208537728]

* the table below shows number occurrences of filtered tickets, red background highlights the actual numbers from back-test draw
[/quote]

Also, where is "the table below shows number occurrences of filtered tickets...."? Thanks.

Best,
lb
[/quote]

click a draw date in 'summary results' table first
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Postby lottoboy » Mon May 19, 2008 5:10 pm

[quote=stan:1210872286]
[quote=lottoboy:1210311569]
[quote=stan:1208537728]

* the table below shows number occurrences of filtered tickets, red background highlights the actual numbers from back-test draw
[/quote]

Also, where is "the table below shows number occurrences of filtered tickets...."? Thanks.

Best,
lb
[/quote]

click a draw date in 'summary results' table first
[/quote]

Hi, Stan:

Thanks for your sincere help!

But I still have one problem as below:

What's the difference between Sim backtest and Sim? When we use them in which status? Thanks.

Best,
lb
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Postby stan » Tue May 20, 2008 11:39 am

'simulation' shows what's statistically most likely to happen in the next draw. simulation back allows testing of various filters and inputs on past draws to verify your theories and strategies
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Postby Joe » Mon Jan 12, 2009 1:20 pm

stan, I have doubts with File Simulation,

I want to Know whether I am doing right with File Simulation,

1. I loaded the "Rand5if6.649" file in to "Simulation Ticket" Field,
2. I have file which are my past Winning results, and loaded into the Field "Back-Test Tickets"

3. click "Update Button' and start the Simulation with settings 9/11 and +/- 20,
4. In summary table I checked each results and each Winning number's occurrences in Detail,
5. In most of the cases I am getting all six numbers within 25 Top occurrences,

These steps for past result,

Now I want to know how to find occurrence of numbers in same method for next draw?
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Postby stan » Sat Jan 17, 2009 10:05 pm

[quote=Joe:1231759229]
stan, I have doubts with File Simulation,

I want to Know whether I am doing right with File Simulation,
[/quote]
you are doing it right

Now I want to know how to find occurrence of numbers in same method for next draw?

it's a 'simulation' so you can use it only to check the performance of tickets (back-test tickets) you've already selected somehow
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Postby jester001 » Sun Jan 18, 2009 1:10 pm

hi stan, i just have a question regarding file simulation with back-test tickets and actual filtering form sums in WNH columns.. whenever i do file simulation with 84000 thousand tickets together with my back-test tickets with 9 to 11 columns must pass and -20 to 20 range i always get the six numbers in my first 20 number occurrences but when i actually test it for a filter for the next drawing i only get 3 to 4 numbers in my first 30 i seldom get 5 to 6 numbers in my 6/42 game. is there something that im doing wrong? btw i use simulation to predict the increase or decrease of each column also i read that for strategy 1 in a 6/49 game after you filter correctly you should have at least 4000 to 12000 tickets left in the package but me whenever i filter in usually get at least 60000+++ tickets am i doing something wrong? tnx in advance for the advice. :)
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Postby stan » Tue Jan 20, 2009 5:38 pm

[quote=jester001:1232277031]
hi stan, i just have a question regarding file simulation with back-test tickets and actual filtering form sums in WNH columns.. whenever i do file simulation with 84000 thousand tickets together with my back-test tickets with 9 to 11 columns must pass and -20 to 20 range i always get the six numbers in my first 20 number occurrences but when i actually test it for a filter for the next drawing i only get 3 to 4 numbers in my first 30 i seldom get 5 to 6 numbers in my 6/42 game. is there something that im doing wrong?
[/quote]
please realize that the whole file simulation tab exists only to confirm the theory that correct sum ranges push winning numbers to the top of sorted number stats.
so the file simulation is basically cheating as it know the right winning numbers before-hand (back-test tickets). it calculates expected wnh sum ranges for these tickets and then only checks numbers stats for 'simulation tickets'. nothing else and nothing more.
there are basically two usages of this tab:
* verify how narrow/wide can be wnh sum ranges for your lottery, together with 'columns to pass' settings. if you make them too narrow or too wide, winning numbers won't appear at the top of sorted stats.
* if you have a set of tickets prepare for bet then you can check if those tickets really do push winning numbers to the top. if not, then there's probably something wrong with your filtering process.

so, it's natural to get winning numbers at the top when back-testing your own tickets. but it assumes that some of those tickets will actually get drawn in the next draw!

btw i use simulation to predict the increase or decrease of each column also i read that for strategy 1 in a 6/49 game after you filter correctly you should have at least 4000 to 12000 tickets left in the package but me whenever i filter in usually get at least 60000+++ tickets am i doing something wrong? tnx in advance for the advice. :)

you've probably relaxed your filtering conditions at some stage. either too wide wnh sum ranges or too many columns are allowed not to pass...
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Postby jester001 » Tue Jan 20, 2009 6:33 pm

ok stan. tnx alot. :) now i understand what what simulation back test is for. also tnx for the advice ill just study again the jackpot strategy that was posted here. tnx. :)
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Postby lottoboy » Thu Jan 22, 2009 2:28 am

[quote=stan:1232222704]
[quote=Joe:1231759229]
stan, I have doubts with File Simulation,

I want to Know whether I am doing right with File Simulation,
[/quote]
you are doing it right

Now I want to know how to find occurrence of numbers in same method for next draw?

it's a 'simulation' so you can use it only to check the performance of tickets (back-test tickets) you've already selected somehow
[/quote]

Stan,

I don't think you have answered Joe's question directly.

From you answer above, I'm confused if or not EL Program is just working for history data "use it only to check the performance of tickets (back-test tickets)" but we use it can not find occurrence of #s in this way for next draw ?

In other wards, EL software can not predict next draw by using history data but only to check the performance of history tickets. It's correct?
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