Unbelievable ... how to hit a jackpot.

Re: Unbelievable ... how to hit a jackpot.

Postby D1Magnet » Wed Jul 17, 2019 5:59 pm

Hi edymurph

Thank you very much for explaining the alterations of position 9, I can see clearly what you mean by the 543 alterations down the column of data (as the other positions also have each draw)


Thank you very much for sending the sum’s for draws 1787-1840. I did the power2 inverse calculations for you on the attached spreadsheet.

Interestingly, these numbers were around 1.2 , 1.3 sometimes 1.4 which is a bit lower than the sample of 10 for draws 1640-1650

I just did it here ... it's not like yours, but it works.
Thank you


Do you mean you did these power2 inverse calculations also??

With the sum’s for draws 1787-1840, would you be able to get the draw sums for 1650 - 1787, to have a data file that runs from draw 1639-1840 (200 draws) to see how a longer term pattern would be over 200 draws?

(I’m not sure if that is a lot of work for you or not to get those missing 127 draw sums)

Direction Predictions

With the decimal series 1.43,1.46,1.48, I tried the median of 1.46 as a direction forecast which seemed to work for 7/9 accuracy. Eg if under 1.46 next prediction up, if over 1.46 next prediction down. If it is equal to 1.46, predict up as the real median is 1.462 (at 3 decimal places), so 1.46 is just under it.

This median is found over 10 results, so you’d have to see if the next 10 results seem to follow this median direction forecast also.

I had a look at the draw results from 1787-1840 (on the 3 decimal input figure), but I couldn’t see any clear median figure for a direction prediction that the decimal numbers respected.

I tried if latest was higher than the average of the last 2, then go down, if latest higher than average of last 2 go up (basically a moving average of 2) . It had about 60% accuracy as a trend prediction (the other 1.46 median prediction over the sample of 9 draws was about 75% accurate, (which is the same as the latest draw 500 ish number against it’s median which is about 75% accurate also)).

With the decimal pattern of 1,4,7, 0,4,7


I think this is because you are raising the input number by the power of 2 each time, naturally this number goes up by a certain amount. When it was 4 and 7, the 1 was next, there seemed to be a pattern of about + 3.3 . Later when it went from 7 to 0, it still seems to be going up by about 3.2 or 3.3 and it starts with 0 (like how 7 +3 = 10 (the zero), before it was like 7.5 + 3.5) is 11))

Thanks
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Re: Unbelievable ... how to hit a jackpot.

Postby edymurph » Wed Jul 17, 2019 8:08 pm

Thanks for the D1 worksheet ... it was very good.
It does not even compare to mine. :lol: :lol: :lol:
Look at my how simple it is.

Then I'll do the analysis of the sum from 1651 to 1786
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Re: Unbelievable ... how to hit a jackpot.

Postby D1Magnet » Thu Jul 18, 2019 4:38 pm

Hi edymurph, thank you, looking forward to the sums on draws 1651 to 1786 to do some more analysis on. :D
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Re: Unbelievable ... how to hit a jackpot.

Postby edymurph » Sat Jul 20, 2019 4:17 pm

D1Magnet wrote:Hi edymurph, thank you, looking forward to the sums on draws 1651 to 1786 to do some more analysis on. :D

Why did not I think of this before, do a search on the forum itself?
Thank you D1 ... as soon as I can put here the study of the 1651 to 1786 competition.
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Re: Unbelievable ... how to hit a jackpot.

Postby edymurph » Sun Jul 21, 2019 3:02 am

Thank you D1 ...
I was reading a bit about serotic numbers, but in the end I found it very confusing, even more so that to use it in EL for me that I have the free version is not possible, I think.
My lottery has 25 numbers and I choose 15 numbers to hit the 15, how can I apply that to her?
could play with 24 or 22 or 20, etc ... from 2 to 2, is that it?
Like I said, I did not understand anything. :lol: :roll:
I think it's best to continue my studies.
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Re: Unbelievable ... how to hit a jackpot.

Postby D1Magnet » Mon Jul 22, 2019 9:42 am

Hi edymurph

Why did not I think of this before, do a search on the forum itself?
Thank you D1 ... as soon as I can put here the study of the 1651 to 1786 competition.


You're welcome :D and yes it's quite easy to do a search by key word or key phrase in the forum, much like how you'd do on a search engine such as Google.
Thank you, it will be very interesting to study the numbers from 1651 to 1786 also.

Serotic Wheels

From what I understand on Serotic wheels, they were designed mostly for pick 5 and pick 6 games by Robert Serotic in the 1980’s

To quote spf302 from back in 2011 on this thread
viewtopic.php?f=15&t=1745&hilit=serotic

-----------------------------
This is Stan's reply on how to create serotic wheels:

To create a pairs serotic wheel for a 6/49 game

"to create such a wheel you must first insert full wheel into the package. then analyze past winning numbers, switch to pairs table. select the pairs you wish to compose the wheel of and click the little 'filter' button in analyzer table toolbar. in the filter window select 'at least 3 to 3 in each ticket, matching tickets accept"

To create a triplets serotic wheel for a 6/49 game

" you must first insert full wheel into the package. then analyze past winning numbers, switch to triplets table. select the triplets you wish to compose the wheel of and click the little 'filter' button in analyzer table toolbar. in the filter window select 'at least 2 to 2 in each ticket, matching tickets accept"

---------------------------------

From the above (for a pick 6 game)
1) you choose your pairs, and select 3 to 3 in each ticket (as pair x3 =6)
2) you choose your triplets, and select 2 to 2 in each ticket (as triplet x2 =6)

Pick 15 Game

So for a pick 15 game, I’d say you’d probably need to analyse pairs, triplets, maybe also quads and pentads (due to the larger game field size of 15) choose the numbers groups you like, and try and filter accordingly from the above instruction.

(for pick 6 games you’d mostly focus on the pairs and triplets as it’s only a pick 6 game field)

I haven’t really tried creating Serotic wheels in Expert Lotto, but it seems reasonably straightforward as it’s just a certain specific wheeling (or number combining) system created.

But with pick 15, I don’t know the composition theory of how pairs, triplets, quads and pentads combine mathematically to give you the best wheeling (or number combining) coverage. I believe it would still be an experiment creating such a wheel, as I don’t know of any Serotic wheels designed for pick 15.

If you picked 5x triplets, you’d win if all triplets are drawn that game (or from what I understand, you’d win lower prizes if a selection of triplets are drawn also (by a triplet being drawn I mean all 3 numbers in that triplet group are dawn together that game)) And if your pairs match (by those 2 numbers being drawn together), you’d win depending on the number of pairs that were correct. Same as for if your 3x quad groups were drawn also (as well as 3x pentads)

It might be easier then to focus on pairs and triplets being drawn out of the 15, but that depends also on the structure of Lotofacil’s past draws, maybe quads and pentads are quite common from game to game due to it’s larger pick size of 15.

(pick 5 Serotic wheels would likely be 1x pair and 1x triplet =5, so you might build upon this approach for an odd number like 15 also)

15 = 3x pentads (5 number grouping), (quads (4 number grouping), quads isn’t an even number with 15), 5x triplets, (and pairs isn’t an even number with 15).

So maybe it’s structured 3x pentads, OR 5x triplets (both of these are exact to 15)

Or maybe 1x triplet (3) and 6x pairs (12) (12+3=15)
Or maybe 3x quads (12) and 1 triplet (3) =15

Then to filter (from the above instruction):

6x pairs would be 6 to 6 in each ticket, 1x triplet, 1 to 1 in each ticket (6x 2(pairs)=12 +3 =15)
3x quads, 3 to 3 in each ticket, 1x triplet, 1 to 1 in each ticket (3x 4(quads)=12 +3 =15)
5x triplets 5 to 5 in each ticket (5 x 3(triplets) =15)
3x pentads, 3 to 3 in each ticket (3 x 5(pentads) =15)

To Filter

Insert full wheel (Package, Insert, Full Wheel). Go to Winning numbers, Analyze, (under number combinations you could tick the whole folder or just select) Pairs, Triplets etc. Press Finish.

Under the pairs table, let’s say you want 6 pairs, press CTRL + LEFT CLICK at the same time, on the chosen pair. It is now highlighted blue, go down the table, choose the next pair you like & press CTRL +LEFT CLICK at the same time, so it is blue. Do this 6 times and then press the little filter icon. You should now have 6 pairs (for example) and I don’t know how you add 1 x triplet into this filter, as it seems to only filter each category at a time (eg you can’t combine 6x pairs and 1x triplet on the same filter, as triplets are filtered separately from the triplets table.)

So for Lotofacil, perhaps you can only do 3x pentads, 3 to 3 in each ticket. OR 5x triplets 5 to 5 in each ticket, as these are all from the same table

If you want to wheel more numbers, let’s say 18 numbers in triplets, you’d choose 6x triplets, 5 to 5 in each ticket. 21 numbers would be 7x triplets, 5 to 5 in each ticket.

If you want to wheel more numbers, let’s say 20 numbers in pentads, you’d choose 4x pentads, 3 to 3 in each ticket. But pentads seem to take a longer time to filter.

I don’t think these higher number pools will reduce as many tickets in the package though, from what I tried.

Hope this helps!

Thanks
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Re: Unbelievable ... how to hit a jackpot.

Postby tintan » Thu Jul 25, 2019 2:37 am

Hi D1Magnet,

Would not be easy having a way of uploading the wheels you wanted in EL instead of going to all these hard work?
I wish I had a way of having the bonus balls columns in my lotteries taken from my export and analysis. Powerball for example is one when I only want the main numbers.
tintan
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Re: Unbelievable ... how to hit a jackpot.

Postby D1Magnet » Fri Jul 26, 2019 11:52 am

Hi tintan, yes you’re right, it would be easier to choose a current optimized wheel from the internet (or one you have manually typed up from an offline source) & then insert it into the package, and then swap numbers (with your selected numbers)

On the links page http://www.expertlotto.com/en/home/links.htm a few of these pages (that have good wheels) aren’t available anymore, and you need to view them via https://archive.org/index.php By pasting the webpage URL into the search bar at archive.org to view the page contents. (Sometimes you may need to go back further in time and click a previous year where archive.org has taken a snapshot of the webpage)

From the help file: 33 Package Optimizer (filtering a full 13.9 mil package into a 3 if 6 wheel)
--------------------
The algorithm this filter implements will never produce wheels that match highly optimized and tightly woven wheels you can find on internet. The main purpose of this filter is the coverage optimization of tickets resulting from your lottery strategy, not creation of optimized wheels from scratch.
---------------------
Expert Lotto can do some basic filtering of the full package into a wheel with a certain match guarantee (eg 3 if 6), but yes, you can easily find more optimized wheels on the internet to insert into the package.

Lotofacil Pick 15

Regarding Lotofacil pick 15 wheels, there don't seem to be many wheels designed for a pick 15 game like there is for games such as pick 5 and pick 6

I’ve attached a txt file of weblinks from a Brazilian forum that has a section on Lotofacil Arrays. (This website can also be viewed in English via Google translate). In the Lotofacil Arrays sub forum, there are some already existing wheels contributed by users.

Powerball Database without Bonus Ball

You could try exporting all the current draws to csv file. Delete the last column of all the Powerball/Bonus numbers (save this change in the csv file), then in E.L go to File, New, Lottery - then select Create other lottery, click next

Name the lottery (for example) Powerball No Bonus Ball (or whatever you’d like to call it) Choose the country, click next, then Select “all numbers from the same pool”, next

Then setup how many balls are drawn and from what range the numbers go. For example, U.S Powerball, 5 main numbers, from 1-69. click next

Setup the date data to match what is in your csv file (in the date order the data is setup for), then setup how many times per week it is drawn. Click next

Select what the winning prizes are (or just leave it’s default of eg, match 5,match 4, match 3). click next

Setup the ticket panel how you’d like it. Click next

Then this new lottery should now be setup.

Then go to Winning Numbers, Import. Select text file & browse for the csv file from its location. Click next

It should then find all the data, click next

Now you need to convert the columns into what they represent in your data, for example, day, month, year (or month, day, year), ticket number, ticket number, ticket number, ticket number, ticket number. (choose these from the drop down boxes & make sure the date columns correctly match your data) Then click next

Then select add new draws & then finish

After this new lottery has been setup, you should then just be able to download the main numbers only each draw for analysis & filtering. (As long as it’s a popular lottery that E.L finds to download automatically, otherwise you’d have to import new data each time, or type in the new draw numbers each time)

Update

Also you could look at this forum post to exclude bonus numbers from main numbers (while still keeping the bonus numbers within the winning numbers database) viewtopic.php?f=14&t=3057&p=24037&hilit=match+ticket+index#p24037

Hope this helps!

Thanks
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Re: Unbelievable ... how to hit a jackpot.

Postby edymurph » Sat Jul 27, 2019 4:02 am

Hello D1 ...
Thank you very much for the tutorial on serotica wheel.
This is quite complex.
The sites you sent me, including ... comoganharnaloteria ... I'm even a member there, but I don't participate in almost anything.
This week I had no time to do the calculations and could not mess with anything.
Next week vpu see if I can send the studies of the 1651 contests to 1786.
I will enjoy and lge ask a question about EL.
I've been looking and haven't seen ...
In EL have the multiples sum filter?
I've seen the filter of multiples, but not the sum.
Until then ... thanks again.
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Re: Unbelievable ... how to hit a jackpot.

Postby D1Magnet » Mon Jul 29, 2019 3:35 pm

Hi edymurph, you’re welcome :D

I listed the Brazilian webpages (comoganharnaloteria) as they seemed to be the only ones I could find on pick 15 wheels. These would be just standard pick 15 wheels (as you probably already know) for playing Lotofacil. They’re not Serotic wheels as I don’t think there are any Serotic wheels designed for a pick 15 game.

Serotic wheels are quite interesting for use on games like pick 5 and pick 6, and from what I understand, they are based on correctly guessing pairs or triplets, or getting one number correct in each group (pair or triplet) that the wheel is constructed of (not like a standard wheel where the numbers just have to fall anywhere within the wheel to be valid)

Thank you, it will be good to see the studies of the contests 1651 to 1786.

With the multiple sum filter, do you mean, the filter that let’s you enter specific separate estimates for the History sums? (not in a range like the standard EL Sums History filter)

If yes, then this filter is called “History Sums” and it is found from installing the History Filters plugin:

Tools, plugins

If it’s not already installed it will be under the tab called “available plugins”

“History Filters” (install just this one) http://expertlotto.com/en/forum/viewtopic.php?t=1999

Close & restart Expert Lotto

Then when you look for the filter you want it is called “History Sums” (not “sums history” which is the standard one)

Thanks
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Re: Unbelievable ... how to hit a jackpot.

Postby edymurph » Tue Jul 30, 2019 10:14 pm

Hello again D1 ...
Thank you very much for the various explanations.
You are a very helpful person.
After a long time, I finished the calculations from 1650 to 1846 (current)
I already took advantage and made my calculations on these numbers ...
But I'll send it to you to make yours.
Maybe you have some different idea than mine.
Thank you..
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Re: Unbelievable ... how to hit a jackpot.

Postby D1Magnet » Wed Jul 31, 2019 4:53 pm

Hi edymurph, thank you very much for sending the contest data from 1650 to 1846 :D

Direction Tests

I tried some direction tests with the nearly 200 draws. So far on the Lotofacil decimal input series 1.457, 1.476, 1.483 etc it only had about 56% accuracy using above or below a moving average of 3. The extra data unfortunately didn’t make the direction more accurate. (I tried quite a few tests and this was the best I found on the nearly 200 draws) To use the median figure of 267, was about 54% accurate. Most tests all gave this same result.

The original 500 ish answer number series was about 68% accurate above and below it’s median of 562.

Individual Digits

I’ve been looking at the individual digits down the column that are between 0-9. So far it’s about 73% accurate using a moving average of 7 (although most moving averages give about the same result) Let’s say using moving average 7. If the latest digit is above the MA7 the prediction is it will go down. If the latest digit is below the MA7 the prediction is it will go up. (You could also use a longer term moving average like 21 or 14 also, it’s only very slightly more accurate)

I tested this 0-9 data from Ticket Index Positions, about 5700 records from the Expert Lotto Demo 6/49 data (all pasted down 1 column). I used this as it is a good example of what likely happens analysing a digit between 0-9, to see what happens next. On the Lotofacil decimal input series 1.457, 1.476, 1.483 etc, when you analyse each digit down it’s own column (for example 7,6 then 3) , it looked similar to analysing the Ticket Index data on the Demo 6/49 lotto.

At the moment I’m working on a new idea like this and should have it ready in the next couple of days.

Thanks
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Re: Unbelievable ... how to hit a jackpot.

Postby edymurph » Sat Aug 03, 2019 3:54 am

Hi D1 ...
Thanks again for your studies ...
Unfortunately there were no improvements with the new results I sent you.
We will have to think of new ideas.
I am building 2 new ideas very simple, but it may show some new direction.
Once you're done, I'll share it here.
Perhaps it is already something that others may have already thought.

Another topic.
We have been exchanging ideas for a long time, but to this day I don't know where you are from ....
Which country are you from?
thank you.
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Re: Unbelievable ... how to hit a jackpot.

Postby D1Magnet » Sat Aug 03, 2019 9:46 am

Hi edymurph, I'm looking forward to hearing your 2 new ideas, what are they? Thanks
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Re: Unbelievable ... how to hit a jackpot.

Postby D1Magnet » Sat Aug 03, 2019 10:00 am

Hi edymurph, below are some of the ideas I’ve been working on as well as the spreadsheet attachments. I’ve also attached an updated version of the 1650-1846 inverse power 2 Edymurph.xls sheet that has some moving average tests in it (that I wrote about last post), along with adding the draws for 1639-1650.

Also I’ve attached a sheet for calculating the moving average of 7 on the decimal data by it’s individual number running down the column.

This is quite a long post so you may want to read each section one at a time to understand what it means from the spreadsheet it’s referring to.

Ticket Index Skip/Hit Sheet

On the sheet IF-Stats-P1-P8- DECIMAL LF.xls I modified this sheet for the decimal series on Lotofacil. This sheet was originally posted by Red Devil in 2010 on this forum post http://www.expertlotto.com/en/forum/vie ... f=9&t=1365 and was designed for the UK Lotto to analyse it’s ticket index positions down each column.

This sheet shows how often each digit between 0-9 hit in the yellow box, what the average hit is (which is the total hit (in the box above) divided by the cell AE1 which is 208 (draws). And also what the total skip is for each digit (how long it has been out). These should give some useful statistics to know.

In the purple section, this gives a percentage figure calculation, for how due the digit was when it was drawn (a skip divided by hit average) I think this is meant to be read as a percentage figure, so 0.2 would mean 20% etc.

This sheet also has filter drop down boxes where you can sort for certain items, for example, you can search how many draws in the position 8 column were 0.2 also.

In the Orange section, you can search for & see the pattern of when a certain number has hit. For example, over positions 7 & 8, you could see how often #4 has hit (from the drop down box) & it would show you the draw numbers when it appeared, then you could click “(All)” at the top to bring it back to the original data. You could do this on any of the numbers between 0-9 in each of their position columns.

Ticket Index Columns

In the UK Lotto (or even Demo 6/49) ticket index positions, you’d probably need to analyse positions 8 down to perhaps 2 or 3. (There are statistics that can also be seen in Expert Lotto under Winning Numbers, Analyze, selecting all draws (or a shorter latest amount), and then select Ticket Index Positions, under the basic folder)

With the Lotofacil decimal series, you’re mainly trying to predict the last 2 decimal positions. The last digit in the decimal series is Ticket Index Position 8, the second last digit is Ticket Index Position 7 in the IF-Stats-P1-P8- DECIMAL LF.xls spreadsheet.

The ticket Index Position 6 for this Lotofacil decimal series tends to stay constant for a while, but then it can change (eg from 3 to 4, 4 to 3, 3 to 2 or 2 to 1) When this is likely to happen, you’d need a prediction or calculation method to know when this is logically likely to occur. To use the moving average of 7, this may not help for this position (although it is useful for positions seven & eight).

The moving average of 7 (or even 14 or 21) is about 73% accurate in predicting if the next digit in the position is likely to go up or down from it’s last (on positions seven & eight)

Analysing the counted outcome in a sample of data

In the sheet, Lotofacil Decimal- Index Analysis.xls, I’ve pasted the 2 columns from position 8 to position 7 all down one column. There are about 413 entries over these 2 columns. The formulas next to them calculate the sequence order in which they arrived. These were then sorted on the right into columns, that make a series of (for example) what 5 previous numbers were before the number at the end. (The final number is the one after the hyphen).

Then it is what 4 previous numbers were before the number after the hyphen. What 3 previous numbers were before the number after the hyphen. What 2 previous numbers were before the number after the hyphen, and finally, what was the previous 1 number before the one with the hyphen.

From my initial analysis, I was looking for if it was a sequence of say 7, 6, then 3, after this specific sequence (7,6,3) what was the count of all numbers that came after it. And then would it be wise to predict the number that had the highest count out of the statistics for the sequence 7,6,3.

You could also just look at the last 2 digits ( 6, 3) then what individual digit had the highest count afterwards for following this sequence.

Counting Sorted Data

To count a specific sample of data, you’d go down (for example) the 3 numbers sequence column (under sorted data) and start at the top of 763-0, copy all of these entries until the data ends at the start of 764-0. Then copy these into column B on the sheet called “countif” and then you’d see the total count of all the digits between 0-9. (To do this on the last 2 digits of 6,3, you’d copy all the data from the 2 number sequence column starting from 63-0 and ending with the last entry of 63-9).

Remember to clear all the contents of column B once you’re finished or it will mess up future counts if there is data still in column B of the countif sheet.

This can also be done on the 2 number sequence column, eg copy all the 6,3 data, or the 1 number sequence column eg all the number 3 data. (as well as the 4 & 5 number sequence columns, but the higher the number, the easier it is to just count it in it’s sorted excel columns. The smaller sequences like 1 have a lot of data so the countif sheet is there to make it easier.)

Demo Lotto 6/49 Ticket Index Tests

I originally tested this idea on the Demo Lotto ticket index positions from 8 down to 3 that gave about 5700 records over 962 draws, pasted down the one column (also I have a sheet from position 8 down to position 2 about 6300 records) from this sample size of about 5700 records, it seemed to have enough data to show what patterns may emerge as the highest hitting numbers that come next.

(This Demo Lotto sheet is attached below in 5 rar archive files as it was 6 mb originally)

From what I’ve seen so far on the Demo Lotto ticket index position’s data, if you look at the last 2 digits, eg they were 6 and 3. Copy all the 1 number sequence data for 6 into the countif sheet (eg starting at 6-0 & ending at 6-9). Note down the top hitting number & then note down the second choice. Do the same for all the 1 number sequence data for 3 (eg starting at 3-0 & ending at 3-9).

So for instance #6 top counted number was 7, then second highest was 0
#3 top counted number was 3, then second highest was 4

In this case 7 was next (at row 91 column B on the demo 6/49 data) If the second or first choices had both been the same number, it may be wise to choose that number.

It would seem that 1st position top hit has precedence over second, but if the two second numbers show up twice over the first top hit numbers, you may be wiser to choose that number that showed up twice.

To use 8 and 3 (at rows 15,16,17 column B on the demo 6/49 data)
#8 top counted number was 9, then second highest was 4
#3 top counted number was 3, then second highest was 4

Since 4 showed up twice, it would seem the best number to choose. And the answer was 4 at line 17 in the data.

So far this is what I’ve seen in the Demo Lotto ticket index position’s data that has 5700 records and seems a good sample size to look at patterns.

Lotofacil Decimal Analysis

To use the numbers (6,3) in the Lotofacil decimal data, there are only 3 entries in the 2 sequence column in this sample size of 413. So looking in the 2 sequence column under sorted values, it has 63-3, 63-4 and 63-4. It would seem 4 is the best choice.

The Lotofacil data has about 413 records so it doesn’t have as much data as the Demo 6/49 Lotto, but I’m looking into the idea of the last 2 digits counted for their top number first hit and second number hit (second choice could also be tied with two numbers, as could first choice (like 4&9 below). This would be ok if it is 2-3 numbers instead of just 2 for the sequence number that’s analysed (eg 6 or 3))

To use (6,3) again on Lotofacil, #6 had 7 as first choice, 5 as second choice.
#3 had 4 & 9 as first choice, 5 as second choice. In this example, 5 seems like the best choice for the next number.

From the 2 sequence column 4 seemed the best choice, from the 1 sequence columns, 5 seemed the best choice. Both 4&5 are near each other & not far apart like 9 & 0 are.

Out of the 3 entries for (6,3) 4 was the answer twice and 3 was the answer once (63-3, 63-4 and 63-4).

Reading #3 on it's own, it had 4 & 9 as first choice, to read (6,3) together, it showed 4 as the best 1st choice.

Thanks
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