about history difference

[Matrix]

Looking at your example in the help section shows LottoExpert 6/49 and how to get the winning numbers in your page after filtering.
Could you give an example for the Taiwan 6/42 from the beginning please. This is only a start of questions but we will take one at a time.

[stan]

we can provide the same example for any lottery. the problem is that we have probably an out of date version of your lottery winning numbers database. that means we'll get different results that you won't be able to reproduce. :vogel:
that's why we used the demo database for the help example so that anyone can repeat the steps and get the same results.

also check the 'using numbers' thread in this forum to see how to use the wn history page for a different lottery.

[Matrix]

Hi,

I have send TW642, TW649 winning numbers data to you.

Pls check ur email and response me as soon as possible, if u feel free.

[stan]

ok, the basic idea is quite simple. first calculate the wn history values for the current winning numbers database and write down the numbers from the sum row in the number history tab. these are the values for the latest drawn winning numbers.
then you must 'hide' from expert lotto the latest draw so that it 'thinks' the draw didn't happen. but you already have the wn history values for the 'future' draw so that you can input them into the wn history filter which will give you the jackpot winning winning ticket that you 'hid' in the previous step.

here's a couple of step-by-step instructions:
1. switch to the wn history page, make sure 'all draws' and all draw days are selected in the wn selection panel and click the update button.

2. write down the values in columns 0 to -10 from the sum row in the number history tab.

3. click menu winning numbers - edit and click the skip check box of the top most draw. also write down the numbers of this draw as this will be the ones you're trying to 'guess'.

4. use the ticket generator to generate all possible combinations into the package.

5. open wn history filter and make sure that all draws and all draw days are selected in the wn selection panel.

6. select all check boxes in the table. enter values from the step 2 into the min and max columns. the min column should be value-10, the max column should be value+10. it can be -/+5 as well to get less remaining tickets after filtering. -0/+0 will provide the jackpot winning ticket only.

7. set the logical condition to And, make sure that the difference in ... option is not selected, select matching ticket leave and click the ok button.

8. when the filtering is finished the package will contain only a few tickets including the jackpot winning one.

9. click menu winning numbers - edit, select show skipped entries and uncheck the skip flag of the latest draw from step 3.


so try the steps above first and if you have problems we'll provide more detailed instructions specific for your lottery.

i also recommend playing taiwan 6/42 lottery as it has bigger winning numbers database. you may note that the wn history sum charts are distorted at their beginnings for the taiwan 6/49 lottery.

[Matrix]

Thanks again.

But, my question is about this one history difference.

[stan]

i see, sorry for the misunderstanding.

history differences tab is one of the many support tools that can help you to set correct parameters for the wn history filter.

you can use it to evaluate the history of your lottery to see if there are any patterns. e.g. the winning ticket usually has, say 3 numbers from the first segment. then you can use the simulate button to estimate whether the wn history difference is more likely to rise or fall for these segment settings.

[Matrix]

[quote=Aubrecht]
i see, sorry for the misunderstanding.

history differences tab is one of the many support tools that can help you to set correct parameters for the wn history filter.

you can use it to evaluate the history of your lottery to see if there are any patterns. e.g. the winning ticket usually has, say 3 numbers from the first segment. then you can use the simulate button to estimate whether the wn history difference is more likely to rise or fall for these segment settings.
[/quote]

i see.

But, how do i know that the WN history difference is more likely to rise or fall for these segment settings? What's the stanard?

Another question is what's the "History to show -1-2-3....._-10"?

What's the 1(7x),2(6x)...........27(1x)? And how to use these function?

What's the Max(-)=-58,Sim=29,Max(+)=36?

What's the Max:554,Avg:522,Steps:100000? How to judge these informations?

How to use the filter tag in the right hand?

How to use the "Draw simulation"?

Thanks again.

[Bobes]

Hi Matrix (and others interesting in the problem „How to use WN History tables“)
First you should be aware that the Winning Numbers History Filter relates closely to the WN History page. The WN History Filter is a tool for implementing the estimations from the WN History tables.

The main purpose of this lottery strategy: The authors are looking for a way to evaluate the winning numbers occurrences in the recent past and to exploit such review using simple mathematical tools.
There are two more or less antagonistic strategies:
A) Each draw is a fully independent, separate process from the statistical point of view. Which in fact leads to an assumption that there’s nothing to prevent the latest drawn numbers to be drawn immediately again.
B) Certain, however not clearly identifiable, statistics do exist, therefore we usually bet numbers and /or their combinations not drawn so far.

It’s up to you to choose the correct strategy.

However if there are any usable statistics then it’s necessary to find a procedure „to exploit these statistics in a simple way“. The objectives are to answer the following questions:

1) Is it possible to obtain a reasonably small set of tickets, which would always contain the JACKPOT-winning ticket for the next draw?
2) What is the nature of such a set (the structure and relations between tickets)?
3) What procedure can be used to obtain such a set in simple way without extensive and complex mathematical analysis?

The answers are as follows:
Ad 1) Yes, such a set can be obtained. The set size ranges from tens to hundreds of tickets depending on the range of your estimations. Such a set always contains the JACKPOT-winning ticket for the next draw.
Ad 2) The tickets in such a set are mutually independent. It means that the resulting tickets do not usually represent an ordered wheel. On the contrary, very frequently two or more totally different tickets meet the required criteria. Therefore the set does not look like a regular wheel and if it is small enough it may not include any of the smaller wins. Nevertheless, this set always contains JACKPOT winning ticket.
Ad 3) A simple mathematical tool for estimation is presented in the WN History Page, while the WN History Filter is used for filtering to obtain the set.

TOOLS
Lottery players are usually focused on evaluation of a defined time period and they compare the frequency of individual numbers in the given selection. Evaluation used in the WN History Page is different. It does not use a constant time period. Instead it considers the last 11 occurrences of each drawn number. Therefore the evaluated period differs for each number.

WN HISTORY PAGE
WN History Page contains several tools. In the upper-left corner of screen, there’s a panel for winning numbers draw selection. It allows selection of a fixed time period as it is used at other application windows. The „Update“ button recalculates the contents of each table (Number History, History Differences, Summary Table a Summary Charts).

NUMBER HISTORY TABLE
This is a simple tool for evaluation of all 49 numbers (generally „xx“ numbers according to your lottery type) up to their 11th occurrence in the past. Each row header field represents one drawn number.
The table contains 11 columns labeled „0“ to „-10“. These columns contain information about the time period between two subsequent occurrences of this number. The column „0“ provides time period to the first occurrence of the number back in the past. E.g. if for a particular number this column contains „5“ then it means that this number was not drawn 5 times from its last occurrence. If a column contains „0“, then it means that this number was drawn just in the last draw (when playing a lottery drawing two sets of numbers in a single day, the second set is in fact the last draw and the first draw occurred immediately before the second draw, therefore „0“ is assigned to the numbers from the 2nd set and „1“ is assigned to the numbers from the 1st set). The 2nd column labeled „-1“ provides information about the time interval to the second occurrence of the number in the past as well as information about time period between the first and the second occurrence back (the value in parentheses). When for example this column contains value “6 [+3]â€￾ then it means that this particular number was not drawn during last 3 draws and its 2nd occurrence in the past was just 6 draws ago. The numbers in parenthesis show you the difference between columns „0“ and „-1“. The same applies for all other columns, they provide information for each subsequent occurrence of the number back in the past up to the column „-10“ (meaning the time period to the 11th occurrence in the past).
What happens in the next draw?
6 numbers are drawn in the next draw. Value in each row of the drawn number changes to „0“. Previous values in these rows are shifted right by one field. The value for all other numbers (not drawn) increases by 1.
How to evaluate these changes in a simple way?
Simple evaluation can be carried out using the sum of all data from all rows in each column. In column „0“ the maximum possible increment is +43 (because we consider zero for the 1st occurrence in the past). However this maximum increment is reduced by the sum of all numbers, which were in appropriate fields (column „0“). In all other columns the maximum increment is 49 and it is reduced again by the sum of values, which were in these fields before the draw. The sum totals for each column are provided in the „SUM“ row. This row is then appended to the SUMMARY TABLE.

SUMMARY TABLE
The summary table contains entries from the SUM row for each past draw so this table shows the „status“ of the Number History Table for each draw in the past. The default count of records in this table is 200 (can be changed in application’s preferences). In this table you can track how the sum for each column changes after each draw. Therefore you can estimate the values of the next sum, to which the current value will be shifted. To make these estimations more accurate there’s a graphical tool available in the „History Chartsâ€￾ – graph of sums and graph of differences“. If your estimations are accurate enough (e.g. within the 10 margin) you can obtain the set of (tens of) tickets filtered from the set of all combinations. Such a set is small enough and it must always contain the JACKPOT-winning ticket. Naturally, the larger estimation margins, the larger the resulting set of tickets. On the other hand, when your are sure that your estimation for the future value for some columns should be close enough (for example 3), you don’t have to define the margins for the other, so called „uncertain“, columns at all. These margins are applied using the WN History filter (see the appropriate section in application’s help)

[Bobes]

HISTORY DIFFERENCES TABLE
The History Differences Tables are another supporting tool for more accurate estimation of the next sum values.
History to show: it allows choosing which column is shown with all the differences sorted in ascending order according to their size. History to show „-3“shows the differences from column 3 together with numbers which these differences belong to. So when the row header shows “1 (7x)â€￾ then it means that 7 numbers have difference „1“ (difference between the 3rd and the 2nd column for each drawn number) and the particular numbers are then listed in the right-hand columns sorted in ascending order. As you can see the most frequent differences are usually the small ones. Some differences do not contain any number at all. You can use the shape of the list of numbers for each column for better estimation of the future difference for the sum. You can also simulate the winning numbers draw by entering the numbers into the edit fields next to the „Draw Simulation“ button at the bottom of the screen. However „Draw simulation“ cannot be active for that case. In fact „draw simulation means the status after the simulated draw which will differ from the current condition.
Max (-), Sim= and Max (+) in the upper-right corner provide the following information:
Max (-) : the difference between current sum and the future sum in case that all the 6 last numbers in the list are drawn (the value is reduced by „-49“, see above)
Max (+) : the difference in case that the future 6 numbers are drawn from the topmost part of the list (the value is reduced by „-49“, see above)
Sim = the difference calculated for numbers entered into the „Draw Simulation“ fields.
SEGMENTS – the table rows are roughly divided into three default parts of the same size (regarding the number of rows in each segment). However you can chose any segment size to better suit your needs. Clicking the Simulate button starts the random number generator simulating 100000 draws (each random drawing must meet the segment criteria) informing you what is the most probable average value with its probable margins (however please remember that they are not the actual minimum and maximum values which are available in the Max (-) and Max (+) fields); in that context for instance you can evaluate the difference between the „probable“ minimum and the absolute minimum. These values will differ significantly when majority of the numbers is in the top part of the list while one large difference exists in the bottom part of the list.
Naturally you can define any segment size according to your wish. In such a case you can also determine the „min“ and the „max“ count of numbers you expected in each segment. Doing so you can filter your package by removing undesired tickets clicking on the FILTER button (right-hand bottom corner).
NOTE: It is more reasonable to expect a negative difference (sum will decrease) when the majority of numbers is spread down from the value of 6. On the other hand, when the „difference axis“ is short enough it should be expected that the future sum would increase. However you must bear in mind that all the columns are mutually dependent thus the change in one column affects all other columns.
You can support your decision making process using History Charts (Chart of differences) where you can see all differences in all columns together (However this time the Draw simulation must be active).

[Matrix]

hi Hakl,

Sorry to reply lately.

After i reading your posts, i wil provide my opinions as soon as possible.

Many Thanks again!