Trend Predictor

[stan]

Trend Predictor is a new expert lotto plugin that attempts to predict the trend - increase/decrese - of a sequence of numbers. it installs as a new main application page and you need expert lotto pro license to use it (we don't want to make it available to the general audiance yet).

how it works
it does more or less the same job as you do when you are looking at various expert lotto charts. for example you'd see that the chart has been rising for the past 5 draws so you'd expect it will drop in the next draw...
the predictor tries to match all previous data (chart points, stats values, drawn numbers...) with the end of the sequence, i.e. the latest data and looks for similarities. if the past data match the latest data a prediction is made from the next data point that followed the past data sample. these predictions are collected for all past data, statistics are calculated and then the predictor will present a prediction that the number sequence will increase or decrease in the next draw.

how to use it
first use expert lotto features to calculate some statistics data (winning numbers table in the statistics is a very good source for predictions or also the wn history summary table), export the table to a csv file.
switch to the predictor page, select the input tab and load the saved file.
(actually, you can use any data that can be interpreted as decimal numbers). note that the first row of the loaded file is used as table header.
switch to settings tab and select the table column for which the predictions will be calculated. leave the remaining settings intact.
switch to results tab and hit button run predictions. you'll see an error message if there are any errors in input data, e.g. the table cells contain text instead of numbers. the prediction results will be displayed in the window below.

how to interpret it
here's a sample prediction result

Code: Select all

Decrease (30-68-2), success rate=83.33% (25/5+0), best pattern size=10, prediction type=StdDev( Values )
Decrease (39-57-3), success rate=80.00% (24/6+0), best pattern size=12, prediction type=StdDev( Trends )
Decrease (33-66-0), success rate=70.00% (21/9+0), best pattern size=18, prediction type=Trend Position Match, minimum match ratio=0.7
Decrease (25-75-0), success rate=66.67% (20/10+0), best pattern size=14, prediction type=Trend Position Match, minimum match ratio=0.8
Decrease (15-84-0), success rate=63.33% (19/10+1), best pattern size=11, prediction type=Trend Position Match, minimum match ratio=0.9
Decrease (17-82-0), success rate=46.67% (14/12+4), best pattern size=5, prediction type=Trend Position Match, minimum match ratio=1.0


the possible values are 'increase/decrease/same', numbers in parenthesis is the percentage of prediction results. e.g. 30-68-2 means that 30% of past data indicated increase, 68% of past data indicated decrease (hence the resulting prediction), 2% indicated that the next value will not change.
success rate shows how the prediction performed on xx latest draws (see Number of Rows for Validation in the settings tab). e.g value 80% means that when predictor matched the past data with xx latest draws and compared its predictions with the actual values, the predictions were correct in 80% cases. number in parenthesis show how many predictions were successful and how many failed. e.g. 14/12+4 means that for the last 30 rows/draws there were 14 valid predictions, 12 predictions were invalid and for 4 rows the predictor couldn't find any matching past data.
best pattern size shows the pattern size that produced the best predictions for the latest xx draws. you can set the minimum and maximum pattern size in the settings tab and the predictor will pick the best one.
prediction type is the name of the method predictor used to match past data with the latest data.

the download link is:
http://www.expertlotto.com/files/previe ... 0.2.plugin
(move the downloaded file into 'plugins' folder in your expert lotto installation folder and restart expert lotto)

check it out and pls let us know what you think about it. is it useful? can lottery players benefit from it? does it really work? etc

[Trust]

Hi Stan!
I installed the plugin in the latest beta -but it does not seem to work.
Is it supposed to handle any numeric data from the winning numbers
stat tables or just plain lotto numbers?

Anyway when i loaded a file with stats from winning numbers from last
10 draws -chosed "Last digit" as input table,the response was "Cannot
parse input data".If i tried to load "Sums" as input data the progress bar
indicated that it calculated or predictied.But nothing more happened-
hitting cancel dit not seem to work.I also tried to load lotto numbers
from the table "ocurrences" in Trailing numbers with same response as
with "Sums".This was imported as CSV-files. ???

[Red Devil]

Stan,

I have downloaded Trend Predictor and had a quick look. If I use the WN History Summary Table with 200 rows set in preferences, to run prediction on the last say 40 draws, am I right in assuming that you start at row 160 and select 40 for number of rows for validation

Rgds

Red Devil

[stan]

[quote=Trust]
I installed the plugin in the latest beta -but it does not seem to work.
Is it supposed to handle any numeric data from the winning numbers
stat tables or just plain lotto numbers?
[/quote]
it can handle any sequence of numbers

Anyway when i loaded a file with stats from winning numbers from last
10 draws -chosed "Last digit" as input table,the response was "Cannot
parse input data".If i tried to load "Sums" as input data the progress bar
indicated that it calculated or predictied.But nothing more happened-
hitting cancel dit not seem to work.I also tried to load lotto numbers
from the table "ocurrences" in Trailing numbers with same response as
with "Sums".This was imported as CSV-files. ???

the user interface is not polished yet. i didn't implement all the checks for input settings.
the predictor needs a lot of past data for its predictions so 10 rows is not enough (the default value for predictor back-testing is 30) therefore it throws an error and you must restart the application. sorry about that - i'll fix these problems in the final version (if there ever will be one:)

[stan]

[quote=Red Devil]
I have downloaded Trend Predictor and had a quick look. If I use the WN History Summary Table with 200 rows set in preferences, to run prediction on the last say 40 draws, am I right in assuming that you start at row 160 and select 40 for number of rows for validation
[/quote]
it's better to have more than 200 past rows as the prediction will be better then.
generally you shouldn't change the 'starting row' parameter. it's only for cases when the past data contain the complete lottery history and you want to rule out the first couple of years of lottery history, e.g. because different drawing machine were used then.

the prediction applies always to the last row in the table. parameter 'number of rows for validation' says how many last rows from the table will be used for predictor back-testing - the 'success rate' value is calculated from these rows.

[Maryland]

I also have a problem Stan. Or I made a mistake. The file downloaded as a zip then I extracted two files and put them in the plugin folder. Or should I have just changed the zip to jar like I do with the other files I've downloaded. If I was ok doing that, then this is my problem. I exported the summary table (history only) to csv, setting to calculate or predict column 0 and hit run predictions. Starts out like it's doing something in the progress bar at top then just locks the program.

[Da80th]

hi,

If you downloaded the file and it in a .zip format, do not unzip it. Just change the file back to the original name (trendpredictor-1.0.0.plugin).

Thanks Stan for this Trend Predictor

Good lucks,


Da80th

[Maryland]

Saw my own mistake Stan, you need more than 30 draws for it to work. I don't know what the actual minimum is for it to calculate but I changed to 250 draws and it worked. I knew it was me :red:

[Maryland]

[quote=Da80th]
hi,

If you downloaded the file and it in a .zip format, do not unzip it. Just change the file back to the original name (trendpredictor-1.0.0.plugin).

Thanks Stan for this Trend Predictor

Good lucks,


Da80th
[/quote]

Thanks Da80th but extracting them seem to work but the next time I will do it the old way just wasn't sure.

[Maryland]

Now for another question how does the Trend Predictor read a file for predicting from top to bottom or bottom to top?

[PadawanLotto]

My questions are, what do the prediction types mean as compared how to use the information? Also, what do the best pattern sizes pretain to? Is it the sum value ranges for each column? What is the minimum match ratios?

The predictor works ok but, it would be better if I knew what I was looking at. I used the predictor with the summary table set to history only. Back to my research.

[PadawanLotto]

In the settings where it says "Number of Rows for Validation" the value of 30 means the last 30 rows or drawings, I think.

[stan]

[quote=Maryland]
Now for another question how does the Trend Predictor read a file for predicting from top to bottom or bottom to top?
[/quote]

from the top to the bottom, i.e. the latest draw is supposed to be at the last table row.

[stan]

[quote=Maryland]
[quote=Da80th]
hi,

If you downloaded the file and it in a .zip format, do not unzip it. Just change the file back to the original name (trendpredictor-1.0.0.plugin).

Thanks Stan for this Trend Predictor

Good lucks,


Da80th
[/quote]

Thanks Da80th but extracting them seem to work but the next time I will do it the old way just wasn't sure.
[/quote]


actually both ways should work. the .plugin file is just a plain zip that expert lotto extracts to its plugin folder.

[stan]

[quote=PadawanLotto]
In the settings where it says "Number of Rows for Validation" the value of 30 means the last 30 rows or drawings, I think.
[/quote]

you can use the predictor for any type of data (e.g. stock market information:)). but since all of us play some sort of lottery then each row in the table can be interpreted as a draw.