- the predicted value is declared invalid if it is bigger or lower than the average calculated from input values +/- two standard deviations of input values:
- Code: Select all
avg_from_input_values - 2*stddev_of_input_data < predicted_value < avg_from_input_values + 2*stddev_of_input_data
- there's a new row in prediction output showing min/max/avg for predicted values calculated for xx best pattern sizes.
if you get detailed report like this:
Pattern Size, Weight, MSE, MAPE, Valid Trend Predictions, Predicted Value
5, 1.00, 1645.653, 0.036, 18, 756.7
5, 0.95, 1645.653, 0.036, 18, 756.7
5, 0.90, 1645.653, 0.036, 18, 756.7
6, 1.00, 1458.949, 0.034, 17, 755.1
6, 0.95, 1458.949, 0.034, 17, 755.1
6, 0.90, 1458.949, 0.034, 17, 755.1
7, 1.00, 1681.634, 0.037, 17, 759.1
7, 0.95, 1681.634, 0.037, 17, 759.1
7, 0.90, 1681.634, 0.037, 17, 759.1
2, 1.00, 1004.932, 0.031, 16, 759.5
2, 0.95, 1004.932, 0.031, 16, 759.5
2, 0.90, 1004.932, 0.031, 16, 759.5
8, 1.00, 2237.956, 0.044, 16, 777.0
8, 0.95, 2237.956, 0.044, 16, 777.0
8, 0.90, 2237.956, 0.044, 16, 777.0
3, 1.00, 1288.151, 0.033, 14, 731.7
3, 0.95, 1288.151, 0.033, 14, 731.7
3, 0.90, 1288.151, 0.033, 14, 731.7
9, 1.00, 2471.700, 0.049, 14, 787.4
9, 0.95, 2471.700, 0.049, 14, 787.4
9, 0.90, 2471.700, 0.049, 14, 787.4
11, 1.00, 5636.037, 0.064, 14, 770.7
11, 0.95, 5636.037, 0.064, 14, 770.7
11, 0.90, 5636.037, 0.064, 14, 770.7
14, 1.00, 6543.484, 0.070, 14, 689.3
...
then min/max/avg values will be calculated from the bold rows only:
- Code: Select all
5 best pattern sizes: Min=755.1, Max=777.0, Avg=761.5, StdDev=8.8, Increase=5, Decrease=0, Same=0
the download link is:
http://www.expertlotto.com/files/previe ... 0.6.plugin
